Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts have kept Saab’s price target unchanged at SEK504.57, citing concerns that its valuation already fully reflects anticipated defense spending growth and that current pricing offers limited upside given realistic sector expansion prospects.
Analyst Commentary
- Elevated valuation premium suggests the stock already factors in anticipated increases in defense spending.
- Analysts view current pricing as reflective of higher future defense budgets, leaving limited upside.
- Updated NATO defense spending targets are seen as insufficient to justify the stock’s embedded growth assumptions.
- Market share gains are not expected to offset the disconnect between priced-in growth and likely sector expansion.
- Bearish analysts believe consensus expectations for Saab have become overly optimistic in light of realistic industry growth projections.
What's in the News
- Saab signed a SEK 5.3 billion contract with the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration to deliver four Gripen E/F fighter aircraft to Thailand, including industrial cooperation and technology transfer (Key Developments).
- Saab launched Nimbrix, its first dedicated Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (C-UAS) missile designed to counter drone threats, with first deliveries aimed for 2026 and a showcase at DSEI London in September 2025 (Key Developments).
- Saab, alongside AstraZeneca, Ericsson, SEB, and Wallenberg Investments, is launching Sferical AI, a company focused on establishing a sovereign AI supercomputer for Swedish industry, with infrastructure based on NVIDIA DGX SuperPODs (Key Developments).
- Saab signed a SEK 60 million contract with the Swedish FMV to develop a Large Uncrewed Undersea Vehicle (LUUV), integrating Saab's Autonomous Ocean Core system, with sea trials set for 2026 (Key Developments).
- Boeing, Saab, and BAE Systems are in discussions to potentially replace Britain’s Hawk trainer aircraft, signaling Saab’s strategic interest in international trainer jet programs (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Saab
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at SEK504.57.
- The Discount Rate for Saab remained effectively unchanged, at 5.71%.
- The Net Profit Margin for Saab remained effectively unchanged, at 8.77%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.