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ABB set to ride electrification wave with AI and automation breakthroughs for margin growth

UN
UnikeInvested
Community Contributor

Published

February 03 2025

Updated

February 06 2025

Narratives are currently in beta

Catalysts

  • Are there any products or services that could move sales or earnings meaningfully?
    • Most Immediate Catalyst (1–2 Years):
      • ABB E-Mobility (EV charging) as governments push for rapid EV infrastructure deployment.
      • ABB Robotics gains from manufacturing automation and U.S./European reshoring.
    • Mid-Term Growth (3–5 Years):
      • ABB Ability™ & AI-powered automation drive software and service revenue growth.
      • Data center expansion & AI infrastructure boost demand for ABB’s electrical solutions.
    • Long-Term Growth (5+ Years):
      • Smart grids & energy efficiency as renewables dominate the energy landscape.
  • Are there any industry tailwinds this stock is benefitting or hindered from?
    • Strong Tailwinds in automation, electrification, and AI-powered solutions.
    • Well-positioned to benefit from green energy and EV charging infrastructure expansion.
    • Competitive in industrial automation and smart factory solutions.
    • Headwinds from economic slowdowns, supply chain risks, and rising competition.
    • Some risks in EV infrastructure if rollout slows or competition increases.

Valuation

  • Where do you think the business will be in 5 years time? ABB will likely become more software-driven, AI-powered, and embedded in global electrification & automation trends.
  • What do you think revenue and profit margins will be?
    • Earnings growth= 6-8% due to higher-margin business mix and automation tailwinds.
    • Profit margin =15% (from 12%) driven by higher-margin automation & digital businesses, while cost efficiencies & demand for industrial AI help expand margins further.
  • What do you think the valuation multiple will be in the future? PE= 20-22
  • Based on my growth expectations, is the stock currently overvalued or undervalued? FAIR VALUED

Reasons to sell

  • Has my narrative around this stock changed for the worse since I originally bought it?
    • ABB is unable to adapt quickly enough to the evolving demands of clean energy solutions
    • Lags behind key technologies such as AI-driven automation or next-generation robotics
    • More matured segments (low-voltage products, electrical products, building products) represent a large % of revenues
  • Have I lost conviction in a narrative around this stock? NO
  • Is the stock overvalued against my estimate of fair value? NO

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

The user Unike has a position in OM:ABB. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
SEK 595.8
0.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Unike's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture042b2014201720202023202420262029Revenue US$42.3bEarnings US$5.1b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
5.11%
Electrical revenue growth rate
0.60%