ALE: Execution Momentum And Buybacks Will Support Stronger Share Performance

Analysts have nudged their price target on Allegro.eu slightly lower to PLN 40.40 from PLN 40.54, reflecting modest tweaks to growth and discount rate assumptions, even as they acknowledge improving execution momentum and a more balanced risk reward profile.

Analyst Commentary

Recent commentary from Goldman Sachs, which upgraded Allegro.eu to Neutral from Sell with a higher price target, underscores a shift toward a more balanced stance on the stock as execution trends improve.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight the upgrade to Neutral as evidence that operational execution is tracking better than previously expected, supporting a rerating closer to fair value.
• The increase in the price target to PLN 40 suggests growing confidence that Allegro.eu can sustain mid term growth in gross merchandise value and revenue despite a competitive backdrop.
• Improving execution momentum is seen as reducing downside risk to earnings forecasts, which supports a more constructive view on valuation multiples.
• Analysts note that a more balanced risk reward profile could attract incremental generalist interest, potentially supporting share price stability around the new target level.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that the Neutral rating signals limited upside from current levels, with the new target price implying only modest rerating potential.
• There is concern that further growth or margin upside may already be reflected in the current valuation, leaving the shares vulnerable if execution momentum slows.
• Some analysts point out that Allegro.eu still faces structural competitive and regulatory risks, which could cap long term growth multiples despite near term operational improvements.
• Uncertainty around the sustainability of recent performance trends leads more cautious analysts to maintain a wait and see stance rather than advocating an outright positive call.

What's in the News

• Allegro.eu completed a share buyback tranche between November 18 and December 3, 2025, repurchasing 4,664,941 shares, or about 0.44% of share capital, for PLN 148.56 million (company announcement).
• The company confirmed full year 2025 guidance, expecting consolidated revenue of PLN 11.9 billion to PLN 12.1 billion, implying year over year growth of 13% to 17% (company guidance).
• The Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program on November 18, 2025. The program allows buybacks of up to 4,664,941 shares for a total of PLN 209.92 million, with a maximum price of PLN 45 per share and a program end date of May 31, 2026 (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has edged down slightly to PLN 40.40 from PLN 40.54, reflecting minor adjustments to the forecast model.
• The discount rate has decreased marginally to 10.03% from 10.05%, implying a slightly lower required return on equity risk.
• The revenue growth assumption has been trimmed fractionally to 12.15% from 12.16%, signaling a nearly unchanged topline outlook.
• The net profit margin has risen modestly to 16.80% from 16.55%, indicating a small improvement in expected profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has fallen slightly to 21.07x from 21.47x, pointing to a modestly less aggressive valuation on forward earnings.