The central tension in the investment case is that MCB's reported profitability has already peaked (PAT down 9% from the 2023 high), yet the share price has rallied 43% over the last twelve months. The just-released Q1 2026 consolidated PAT of Rs. 13.14 bn was down 11% year-on-year, confirming that NIM compression from the SBP's easing cycle is now biting the reported numbers. Meanwhile, the sector faces an estimated Rs. 600 bn+ mark-to-market hit from the March 2026 spike in PIB yields, and MCB — with Rs. 1.95 trillion parked in government securities — is structurally exposed.
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