NAS: Short Haul And Leisure Focus Will Drive Performance Into September Results

Narrative Update on Norwegian Air Shuttle

The analyst price target for Norwegian Air Shuttle has increased from NOK 17.00 to NOK 17.75. This change reflects analysts' preference for short haul and leisure segment performance among European airlines ahead of the September quarter results.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts have recently adjusted their views on Norwegian Air Shuttle, reflecting both positive and cautious perspectives ahead of the upcoming results season.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see strong relative performance in the short haul and leisure travel segments. These are expected to drive revenue growth and support a higher valuation.
• The upward revision in the price target signals confidence in Norwegian Air Shuttle's ability to execute on its core routes and capitalize on current travel demand trends.
• Improved load factors and cost control measures have contributed to renewed optimism regarding the company's profitability potential in the near term.
• Anticipation of resilient passenger demand, especially in leisure travel, supports the positive outlook for sustained earnings momentum.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that an overreliance on short haul and leisure traffic may expose Norwegian Air Shuttle to demand swings during off-peak seasons, which could affect revenue consistency.
• Competition remains intense across European routes and this may put pressure on pricing power and market share growth.
• There are concerns about the macroeconomic environment, including potential headwinds from fluctuating fuel costs and currency volatility, which could hinder profitability improvements.
• The firm's limited exposure to long haul markets may restrict opportunities for broader network expansion and revenue diversification.

What's in the News

• Norwegian Air Shuttle is holding a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on November 20, 2025, at 14:00 W. Europe Standard Time (Key Developments).
• The company reported operating results for September 2025, with passenger numbers rising to 2,302,536 for the month and 23,126,481 for the rolling twelve months. Both figures are higher than the prior year. The load factor also increased to 86.6% for the month and 85.4% for the twelve months (Key Developments).
• Norwegian has expanded its existing Boeing order by exercising the option for 30 additional Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, which brings its total order to 80. The adjusted delivery timeline extends to 2031 and supports Norwegian's ongoing fleet renewal and growth strategy (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The discount rate has fallen slightly from 10.06% to 9.83%, reflecting a more favorable risk assessment.
• Revenue growth expectations have decreased from 6.17% to 5.77%, indicating more moderate top-line projections.
• The net profit margin has risen moderately from 5.42% to 5.82%, suggesting improved profitability assumptions.
• The future P/E ratio has declined from 12.91x to 12.08x, implying a lower multiple for forecasted earnings.
• The fair value estimate remains unchanged at NOK 18.17 per share.