VAR: Production Will Surpass Market Estimates As Project Pipeline Delivers Through 2030

Analysts have slightly increased their price target for Vår Energi, raising it by NOK 0.17 to NOK 38.97. This change is attributed to generally more optimistic outlooks on the company’s project pipeline and future production growth estimates.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research coverage on Vår Energi highlights a mix of optimism and caution among analysts, resulting in both upward target revisions and concerns regarding valuation and industry positioning.

• Bullish analysts anticipate the company’s project pipeline capacity will drive modest production growth through the end of the decade, supporting a higher price target.
• Some forecasts for 2030 production are significantly above current market consensus, suggesting room for outperformance if project execution remains strong.
• Recent positive ratings and higher targets cite Vår Energi’s operational leverage and potential to capitalize on future demand within the energy sector.
• A generally optimistic outlook on Vår Energi’s production and project development supports continued investor interest, particularly among those seeking long-term growth exposure.

• Bearish analysts are cautious on valuation, with some rating adjustments lowering the stock to "Sell" based on concerns over relative industry positioning and execution risk.
• Neutral views persist among parts of the analyst community. This reflects uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to differentiate itself from peers in a competitive landscape.
• There is a preference in the sector for oilfield services over exploration and production companies. This could temper expectations for Vår Energi’s near-term share performance.
• Some price targets remain only modestly above prior levels, indicating lingering hesitation over the sustainability of projected growth and market conditions.

What's in the News

• Vår Energi ASA approved an extraordinary dividend of NOK 1.211 per share (USD 300 million) relating to Q3 2025. Payment is scheduled for 25 November 2025 (Key Developments).
• The company provided guidance to meet the midpoint of its full-year production range, aiming for 330,000 to 360,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025. The company also aims to maintain approximately 400,000 barrels per day in 2026 (Key Developments).
• Vår Energi reported strong production results for Q3 2025, achieving total production of 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This represents a significant increase from 256,000 a year ago (Key Developments).
• The company announced the acquisition of TotalEnergies' ownership interest in the Ekofisk PPF project, increasing its stake from 12.388% to 52.284%. This acquisition is expected to add 38 million barrels of reserves (Key Developments).
• The Jotun FPSO reached peak production ahead of schedule and is now producing over 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day gross. This supports continued development of the Balder field in the North Sea (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from NOK 38.80 to NOK 38.97.
• The Discount Rate has increased modestly from 6.72% to 6.81%.
• The Revenue Growth expectation has decreased fractionally, now at 6.68% compared to the previous 6.73%.
• The Net Profit Margin estimate has edged down, dropping from 9.82% to 9.76%.
• The Future P/E Ratio has gone up marginally, climbing from 13.13x to 13.29x.