Update shared on17 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.99%The consensus price target for Equinor has been revised down to NOK250.44 as analysts express concern over weaker commodity prices, disappointing near-term earnings, limited growth prospects, and declining cash returns, with prior bullish views turning more cautious amid deteriorating market conditions.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite expectations of lower commodity prices and disappointing near-term earnings, particularly in oil & gas and low carbon segments.
- Concerns over Equinor's limited growth prospects and declining cash returns, with risks seen as underappreciated in current valuation.
- Anticipated decline in returns and increased gearing, potentially restraining the company's capacity to sustain shareholder distributions through debt.
- Bullish analysts previously supported the stock on perceived upside to price targets, but later shifted to neutral or cautious stances amid evolving market conditions.
- Diesel-led refiners are viewed as better hedges against oil price strength, driving some negative relative calls on Equinor.
What's in the News
- Equinor’s Q2 and H1 2025 production rose modestly year-over-year, with both equity and entitlement volumes, as well as power generation, showing slight increases.
- BASF and Equinor signed a 10-year strategic supply agreement for up to 23 TWh of natural gas annually to BASF in Europe, commencing October 2025.
- The Smackover Lithium JV (Equinor-Standard Lithium) reported the highest lithium brine grades to date at the SWA Project, with a Definitive Feasibility Study expected later in Q3 2025 and a final investment decision targeted by year-end.
- Equinor and partners announced a commercial oil discovery (9-15 mmboe recoverable) at the Drivis Tubaen prospect, Barents Sea, with potential tie-in to Johan Castberg facilities.
- The Var Energi–Equinor–INPEX partnership submitted a PDO for the NOK 21bn Fram Sor project (North Sea), targeting 116 mmboe gross recoverable reserves, with production start expected end-2029 and follow-on exploration targets identified.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Equinor
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from NOK258.16 to NOK250.44.
- The Future P/E for Equinor has significantly risen from 8.97x to 89.96x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Equinor remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from -5.4% per annum to -5.5% per annum.
Disclaimer
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