TOM: Poland Rollout And Index Inclusion Will Support Upside Ahead

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Tomra Systems to approximately NOK 154 from about NOK 150, reflecting a slightly lower discount rate, improved long term margin expectations, and a still supportive but somewhat lower future earnings multiple despite mixed recent Street price target revisions.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Tomra Systems has turned more mixed, with some bullish analysts growing more constructive on the risk reward while others remain cautious on execution and end market headwinds.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight the recent upgrade to a Buy rating as evidence that the current share price already discounts much of the recent operational softness, leaving room for upside as execution improves.
• The reaffirmed price target in the mid 150s suggests confidence that Tomra can sustain attractive long term growth in deposit return systems and resource recovery, supporting a premium multiple versus peers.
• Supportive views emphasize that structural drivers, such as tightening regulation around recycling and circular economy initiatives, should underpin volume growth and margin expansion over time.
• More optimistic forecasts assume that rollout challenges in new deposit return systems markets are temporary, and that smoother implementation could unlock higher earnings power than currently reflected in consensus.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to the lower price target in the mid 130s as evidence that near term earnings risk remains elevated, warranting a discount valuation until visibility improves.
• Concerns focus on rollout risks in new deposit return systems markets, where delays and operational complexity could weigh on revenue conversion and margin delivery.
• Intensifying competition and ongoing weakness in recycling are seen as structural headwinds that could cap Tomra's pricing power and slow growth, particularly if new entrants pressure returns.
• More cautious views argue that subdued earnings momentum and execution risk justify maintaining only a Hold stance for now, even after the recent pullback in the share price.

What's in the News

• TOMRA secured an order to supply 3,000 reverse vending machines to Polish retailer Dino Polska, with installations starting in the coming weeks and continuing through the first half of 2026. This supports Poland's newly launched national deposit return system (Key Developments).
• Tomra Systems ASA has been added to the Oslo OBX Total Return Index, increasing its visibility and potential ownership among index tracking investors (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has risen slightly to around NOK 154 from roughly NOK 150, reflecting improved long term margin assumptions and a lower discount rate.
• The discount rate has fallen marginally from about 8.10 percent to approximately 8.06 percent, modestly increasing the present value of future cash flows.
• Revenue growth has been revised down from roughly 16.9 percent to about 14.9 percent, indicating slightly more conservative top line expectations.
• The net profit margin has increased from around 11.5 percent to roughly 12.7 percent, signaling expectations for better profitability despite softer growth.
• The future P/E has edged down from about 19.3x to approximately 18.8x, implying a modestly lower valuation multiple applied to Tomra Systems forward earnings.