INPST: Parcel Locker Expansion Will Support Future Margin Improvement And Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on InPost to EUR 15.20 from EUR 16.00, reflecting slightly slower expected revenue growth, offset by a modestly improved profit margin outlook and a marginally lower discount rate and future P E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Recent commentary highlights that the revised target price still implies an attractive upside, even after adjusting for slightly softer top line assumptions and a more conservative long term growth profile.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts note that the maintained Overweight stance signals continued confidence in InPost's ability to execute on its parcel locker expansion and enhance network efficiency, supporting medium term earnings visibility.
• The modestly improved profit margin outlook is viewed as evidence that operating leverage and cost discipline can offset slower revenue growth, underpinning a resilient valuation case.
• Analysts point to the marginally lower discount rate as recognition of reduced perceived risk in the business model and balance sheet, which supports a higher equity value than would otherwise be implied by slower growth.
• The small downward revision in the target, from EUR 16.00 to EUR 15.20, is interpreted as a calibration rather than a thesis change, with upside still anchored in continued parcel volume growth and cross border expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts highlight that the target cut reflects increasing caution around the pace of revenue growth, particularly if competition intensifies or consumer demand normalizes from recent peaks.
• Concerns remain that expectations for sustained margin improvement may prove ambitious if input costs or pricing pressure limit further operating leverage.
• The adjustment in the long term P E multiple is seen as a signal that the market may be less willing to pay a premium for growth if execution wobbles or regulatory headwinds emerge.
• Some analysts caution that, despite the Overweight rating, the risk reward balance is more finely poised, with less room for disappointment in delivery volumes or capital allocation decisions.

What's in the News

• InPost S.A. reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, maintaining volume growth targets of 25% to 30% and revenue growth of 35% to 40%, signaling confidence in its medium term outlook (Key Developments).
• The company has called a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for December 11, 2025, at 12:30 W. Europe Standard Time, to be held at the nh Hotel Luxembourg Airport in Senningerberg, Luxembourg (Key Developments).
• InPost S.A. was added to the Amsterdam AEX Index, underscoring its growing importance in the Dutch equity market (Key Developments).
• InPost S.A. was also reported as removed in a separate index constituent update, highlighting ongoing index rebalancing activity around the stock (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: decreased slightly from €16.62 to €16.15 per share, reflecting a modestly lower intrinsic valuation estimate.
• Discount Rate: edged down from 6.71% to 6.68%, indicating a marginal reduction in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth: lowered from 18.0% to 15.7%, marking a notable step down in medium term top line expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: increased from 10.0% to 10.6%, signaling a modest improvement in projected profitability.
• Future P/E: trimmed from 19.7x to 19.2x, suggesting a slightly more conservative valuation multiple for forward earnings.