Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 2.03%ASML Holding’s analyst price target was raised to €769.45, as analysts cite strengthening long-term demand from AI and semiconductor capex trends and diminishing export control risks, despite lingering near-term macro headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts point to expanding AI compute spending and expectations of substantial TSMC capex in 2026-2027, which supports higher demand trends for ASML’s advanced lithography tools.
- Recent upgrades reflect the view that market concerns over China exposure and export controls are now well understood, with risk mostly priced in and diminishing as an overhang on ASML shares.
- Improved competitive dynamics in the semiconductor industry, notably the Intel-Nvidia partnership, are expected to indirectly benefit ASML as greater capital expenditure and innovation drive demand for semiconductor equipment.
- Some analysts are incrementally cautious due to minimal near-term growth forecasts, macro/geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing weak orders influenced by delayed or uncertain customer capex (notably from Intel, Samsung, and in DRAM).
- Participation in Mistral AI’s funding round is seen as providing ASML with longer-term strategic optionality, potential insider insight into AI development, and a role in future AI regulatory discussions, viewed as a medium-term positive for the company’s positioning.
What's in the News
- ASML is investing €1.3 billion as the lead investor in Mistral AI’s €1.7 billion Series C funding round, becoming the top shareholder with approximately 11% ownership and securing a board seat at Mistral AI (Reuters, Key Developments).
- ASML and Mistral AI have entered a long-term strategic partnership to integrate AI models across ASML’s product portfolio, enhancing R&D, operations, and holistic lithography system performance for ASML customers (Key Developments).
- ASML's CFO, Roger Dassen, will join the Strategic Committee of Mistral AI as part of the company’s advisory role following the investment (Key Developments).
- Earnings guidance for Q3 2025 anticipates net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion with gross margin of 50-52%; full-year 2025 net sales are expected to increase approximately 15% versus 2024, with a gross margin target of around 52% (Key Developments).
- ASML declared an interim dividend of €1.60 per ordinary share, payable on August 6, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for ASML Holding
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from €754.13 to €769.45.
- The Future P/E for ASML Holding remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 29.13x to 29.67x.
- The Discount Rate for ASML Holding remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.03% to 7.92%.
Disclaimer
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