Update shared on 17 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.84%ASML Holding's analyst price target has been raised modestly, increasing from €941.90 to €949.81 as analysts cite stronger Q3 results, improved profit margins, and a more favorable growth outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector.
Analyst Commentary
Recent commentary from equity research analysts reflects a primarily upbeat sentiment on ASML Holding’s outlook, with most citing strong fundamentals and improved profitability as the drivers for upward price target revisions. Nonetheless, a few notes of caution remain, focused on near-term challenges and market dynamics.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to raise their price targets for ASML, often referencing robust third quarter results, rising gross margins, and consistent profitability as key drivers behind these upgrades.
- Many see ASML as notably well positioned to benefit from a projected increase in DRAM and memory spend starting in 2026. Several cite positive industry trends and improved client spending plans.
- The company's strategic moves, such as investments in artificial intelligence and involvement in key semiconductor partnerships, are viewed as adding optionality for shareholders and supporting longer-term growth.
- Upward adjustments to future earnings estimates are attributed to expectations for higher EUV system deliveries, operating leverage, and the impact of new technology cycles. These factors reinforce the company’s premium valuation.
- Bearish analysts highlight that despite recent upgrades, ASML faces ongoing uncertainty in the near term due to muted guidance for 2025 and evolving customer demand, especially as markets adjust after periods of rapid expansion.
- Some caution remains around the pace of recovery in end-market demand, particularly given lingering macroeconomic risks and the potential for shifting spending priorities among semiconductor manufacturers.
- Pressure from increased competition and regulatory changes, particularly regarding export controls and international dynamics, continues to be mentioned as a factor that could limit the company's execution or weigh on future growth rates.
What's in the News
- ASML's CEO highlighted the fragility of the global semiconductor supply chain in light of the recent Nexperia dispute between the Netherlands and China, calling for responsible action and ongoing dialog among all parties (Bloomberg).
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target on ASML to EUR 975 and maintained an Overweight rating for the shares (Morgan Stanley).
- Deutsche Bank raised ASML's price target to EUR 1,000 from EUR 900, citing solid Q3 results and a continued Buy rating (Deutsche Bank).
- Berenberg increased its price target for ASML to EUR 1,050, reflecting confidence in the company’s position to benefit from increased DRAM spend in 2026 and beyond (Berenberg).
- ASML is set to become the top shareholder of AI startup Mistral AI by committing EUR 1.3 billion to its fundraise, gaining a board seat and strengthening its presence in artificial intelligence (Reuters).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly, increasing from €941.90 to €949.81.
- Discount Rate has increased moderately, moving from 8.03% to 8.43%.
- Revenue Growth forecasts are higher, now at 9.71% compared to the previous 9.04%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved, rising from 31.58% to 33.03%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased, moving from 33.32x to 31.79x.
Disclaimer
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