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AGN: US Refocus And Buyback Will Drive Attractive Upside Potential

AGN: Dividend Growth And Buyback Expansion Will Underpin Future Performance

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AGN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 09 Feb 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.19%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
13.6%
7D
-5.2%

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Aegon, trimming fair value by about $0.01 as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate, offset by marginally improved profit margin expectations, while keeping longer term growth and valuation multiples broadly unchanged.

What's in the News

  • Aegon launches a strategic review of its UK business, including a potential divestment, as it shifts its head office to the US and plans to rename the holding company Transamerica, sharpening its focus on the US market (company statement).
  • The UK review covers flagship platforms such as Aegon Retirement Choices, The Aegon Platform and its workplace pension business, as the group evaluates all options to accelerate and maximize value for stakeholders (company statement).
  • Aegon confirms it will continue to expand Aegon Asset Management, targeting higher third party revenues and closer collaboration with its US insurer Transamerica (company statement).
  • The Board of Directors authorizes a new share buyback plan under which Aegon will repurchase up to €400 million of its shares, split evenly between the first and second half of 2026 (company statement).
  • Amid a strategy to concentrate on its US operations, Aegon is reported to be weighing divestments of certain non US units, including Aegon UK and its 51 percent stake in a joint venture with Banco Santander in Spain and Portugal (Bloomberg).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Trimmed slightly from €7.36 to €7.34 per share, reflecting a marginally more conservative valuation.
  • Discount Rate: Risen slightly from 5.20% to 5.24%, increasing the rate at which future cash flows are discounted.
  • Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at approximately minus 7.49%, indicating no meaningful revision to top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: Edged up marginally from 12.47% to 12.47%, signaling a small improvement in expected profitability.
  • Future P/E: Eased slightly from 10.29x to 10.28x, implying a modestly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.