Last Update 09 Nov 25
Airtel Africa – Mobile Money IPO Momentum Builds as Digital Scale Accelerates
Fintech engine strengthens ahead of transformational 2026 listing
Strategic Context
Airtel Africa’s mobile money business is entering a pivotal phase as the Group prepares for its public listing in the first half of 2026. The evolution of Airtel Money from a basic funds-transfer service into an expanding digital financial ecosystem supports Airtel Africa’s strategic pivot from telecommunications to a dual-platform model — digital connectivity + financial services enablement.
The company’s fintech arm now processes transactions approaching $200bn annually, reflecting rising customer adoption, improving smartphone penetration, and growing financial inclusion across its markets. With deeper ecosystem engagement and product expansion into lending, savings, insurance, and merchant payments, Airtel Money is poised to crystallize meaningful standalone value when listed.
Performance Highlights
- Mobile Money Customers: 49.8m, up +20% YoY
- Annualised Transaction Value (TPV): $193bn, up +35.9% YoY
- Fintech Revenue Growth: +30.2% YoY
- Mobile Money ARPU: +11% YoY
- Smartphone penetration across Airtel markets: 46.8%
CEO Sunil Taldar affirmed that IPO preparation remains on track for H1 2026, citing accelerating platform usage and increased digital adoption via the MyAirtel app.
Investment Thesis
Airtel Money is in the midst of a structural monetization cycle supported by:
1) Scale Advantage A nearly 50 million-user base and fast-growing digital footprint create a defensible network advantage, particularly in markets with historically low financial-services penetration.
2) Platform Expansion Increasing product diversity — beyond payments into lending, savings, insurance, and merchant services — strengthens revenue quality and enhances lifetime value per user.
3) Digital Infrastructure Synergy Smartphone penetration approaching 47% and rising data adoption support ecosystem stickiness and integration with Airtel’s digital channels.
4) IPO Catalyst and Value Unlock A successful 2026 listing positions Airtel Money as one of Africa’s largest publicly traded fintechs, unlocking balance-sheet flexibility and allowing the business to pursue accelerated growth and partnerships.
5) Telco-Fintech Model Validation Peer developments — notably MTN’s fintech spin-outs and strategic investor interest — reinforce the sustainability of telecom-anchored fintech franchises and set valuation benchmarks.
Strengths
Exceptional scale and transaction velocity → $193bn processed annually, rapid user expansion Strong digital adoption and customer engagement supported by MyAirtel app integration Structural growth drivers including smartphone penetration, digital financial inclusion, and broadening product suite Clear strategic direction with IPO timeline and continued network and ecosystem investment First-mover advantage in multiple markets leveraging telco infrastructure and user trust
Weaknesses / Risks
Dependence on connectivity penetration — fintech growth tied to mobile adoption trends Regulatory complexity across 14 jurisdictions — potential licensing and capital compliance hurdles Execution risk around IPO timing, valuation, and market sentiment Competitive pressure from MTN and emergent digital-only providers Fintech revenue still early in maturity curve vs more diversified global digital banking peers
Industry Context
The African telco-fintech model is maturing rapidly. MTN’s fintech unit growth trajectory, advanced product rollout and external investment validation (e.g., Mastercard stake) highlight the broader shift:
- Telcos are evolving into financial-services providers
- Fintech divisions are being separated for value unlocking
- Africa is entering a phase where large-cap fintech listings will shape capital markets
Airtel Money’s expected IPO will cement this evolution, serving as a valuation anchor for Africa’s emerging digital-finance sector.
Analyst Commentary – Implications & Interpretation
Airtel Money's growth trajectory underscores a structural, not cyclical, shift in African consumer behavior. The data-to-fintech monetization stack being built places Airtel Africa at the center of the continent’s digital economy transformation.
The platform's ability to monetize digital payments and transition users into higher-margin services (credit, insurance, savings) mirrors proven global fintech playbooks — but with the added advantage of telco infrastructure, embedded user base and lower customer-acquisition costs.
The coming IPO represents a value-crystallization event and a test of investor appetite for scaled African fintech platforms. Successful execution could set new benchmarks, attract global capital, and accelerate industry-wide digital financial inclusion.
Outlook
Momentum is expected to remain strong through 2026, supported by:
- Continued smartphone and data penetration growth
- Network expansion and digital-platform integration
- Wider fintech product rollout
- Strengthening customer engagement metrics
- Robust regulatory positioning ahead of IPO
While risks remain, the risk-reward profile is skewed positively as Airtel moves to convert operational scale into market valuation and capital flexibility.
AIRTEL AFRICA PLC Unaudited Financial Statements for the Half Year Ended 30 September 2025 Released: 28 October 2025
Consistently Strong Results Reflecting Sustained Demand and Continued Strategic Execution
Operating Overview
Airtel Africa Plc delivered another period of robust financial and operational performance for the half year ended 30 September 2025, reflecting sustained momentum across its core markets and continued progress on its strategic priorities of digital expansion, customer-centric innovation, and financial inclusion. The Group’s total customer base expanded by 11.0% year-on-year to 173.8 million, driven by solid growth across all regions. Data customers increased by 18.4% to 78.1 million, highlighting the success of targeted capex deployment and the growing adoption of smartphones across markets. Smartphone penetration reached 46.8%, up 3.8 percentage points, supported by affordable device initiatives and expanding 4G coverage. Data traffic rose by 45.0%, boosting data ARPU by 16.8% in constant currency, as users consumed more high-speed internet services across the Group’s extensive fibre and tower networks. This resulted in data revenue surpassing voice for the first time in Airtel’s history, marking a structural shift in revenue composition. On the fintech front, Airtel Money continued to gain scale and relevance in driving digital inclusion. The mobile money customer base grew 20% to 49.8 million, while annualised total processed value (TPV) reached $193 billion, up 35.9%. The segment contributed over 21% of Group revenue, reinforcing Airtel’s diversification into high-growth digital financial services. Airtel’s strategic network investments remained central to its operational strength. The Group rolled out 2,350 new sites during the period, bringing total sites to 38,300, with 4G coverage expanding to 98.5% of sites. Fibre infrastructure also grew by approximately 4,000 km to 81,000 km, enhancing network resilience and capacity to meet rising demand. Overall, population coverage improved to 81.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points.
Financial Performance Summary
Airtel Africa reported strong growth across key metrics, underpinned by rising customer usage, disciplined cost management, and currency appreciation in several markets.
Segmental and Regional Performance
Nigeria: Nigeria remained the Group’s largest market and primary growth engine. Revenue rose 49% in constant currency to $697 million, propelled by 62% growth in data revenue following tariff adjustments and strong customer additions. EBITDA margin expanded to 56%, reflecting improved operating leverage and naira appreciation during Q2 2026.
East Africa: Revenue advanced 15.6% to $1.05 billion, driven by continued momentum in data and Airtel Money. EBITDA margin stood at 48%, supported by disciplined cost control and favourable FX movements across Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania.
Francophone Africa: Revenue climbed 14.5% to $749 million, as economic recovery and CFA franc appreciation aided performance. EBITDA margin improved to 39.5%, boosted by operational efficiency and network expansion.
Operational Highlights
- Data Services: Data revenue surged 37% in constant currency to $1.16 billion, overtaking voice as the largest revenue stream. Average monthly data usage per customer rose to 8.2GB, reflecting growing video streaming and mobile internet penetration.
- Voice Services: Voice revenue grew 13.2% in constant currency, supported by an 11% increase in subscribers and higher engagement levels across key markets.
- Mobile Money: Airtel Money revenue climbed 30.2%, supported by robust customer acquisition, expanding merchant ecosystems, and digital wallet usage. The segment remains strategically positioned ahead of its planned IPO in H1 2026.
Capital Expenditure and Balance Sheet Strength
Capex during the half year was $318 million, broadly flat year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investment in network expansion and digital infrastructure. In light of the strong financial results, FY2026 capex guidance has been revised upward to $875–900 million to accelerate network rollout, fibre densification, and data centre development. Airtel continued its debt localisation programme, reducing exposure to currency volatility. Approximately 95% of OpCo debt (excluding leases) is now in local currencies, up from 89% a year ago. Net debt stood at $5.5 billion, with leverage improving from 2.3x to 2.1x. On a lease-adjusted basis, leverage reduced to 0.8x from 1.0x, supported by higher EBITDA. Finance costs fell significantly to $304 million (from $528 million), as FX losses seen in the prior year did not recur. This, alongside robust operating income and positive currency movements, drove the sharp improvement in profitability.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
In line with its progressive dividend policy, the Board declared an interim dividend of 2.84 US cents per share, representing a 9.2% increase year-on-year. The $100 million share buy-back programme remains on track for completion by 31 March 2026, reinforcing Airtel’s confidence in long-term value creation and balance sheet resilience.
Key Strengths
1. Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
- Revenue up +25.8% YoY, EBITDA up +33.2%, PAT up +375%.
- EPS surged +908%, driven by improved margins and FX stability.
2. Data-Driven Growth Model
- Data revenue surpassed voice, becoming largest segment.
- Data traffic +45%, data ARPU +16.8%, smartphone penetration rising to 46.8%.
3. Fintech Momentum
- Airtel Money revenue +30%, customers +20%, TPV $193bn (+36%).
- Fintech becoming a core value driver; IPO planned for 2026 to unlock further value.
4. Operating Efficiency & Margin Expansion
- EBITDA margin expanded to 48.5% (from 45.8%).
- Strong cost optimization and scale efficiencies.
5. Strong Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
- Operating free cash flow +46.5%.
- Net debt down 6.8%, leverage improved to 2.1x (vs. 2.3x).
6. Reduced FX Exposure
- 95% of OpCo debt in local currency, shielding earnings from FX shocks.
- FX appreciation in Nigeria and CFA region boosted profitability.
7. Strategic Capital Allocation
- Interim dividend +9.2%.
- $100m share buyback supports shareholder value.
- Stable capex, yet investing for 5G & data center expansion.
8. Expanding Customer Base & Digital Ecosystem
- Total subscribers +11% to 173.8m.
- Mobile money customers +20%.
- 98.5% sites 4G-enabled; expanding fiber backbone.
Key Weaknesses / Risks
1. Macro & FX Vulnerability Remains
- Despite improvements, operations remain exposed to African currency volatility and inflation pressures across multiple markets.
2. Capex Intensity Increasing
- FY2026 capex guidance +10–12.5% — future free cash flow may feel pressure.
3. Competitive Telecom Landscape
- Fierce competition from MTN and new digital-first entrants could heighten pricing and ARPU pressure.
4. Regulatory & Policy Risk
- Operating in 14 African markets increases exposure to:
- Telecom regulatory shifts
- Fintech licensing and capital adequacy rules
- Taxation changes
5. Continued Dependence on Data & Fintech Growth
- Rapid voice revenue decline continues; success depends on sustained data monetization and fintech execution.
6. Execution Risk in Fintech IPO
- Airtel Money IPO planned for 2026 — valuation, timing, and regulatory approval remain execution risks.
Bottom Line
Airtel Africa Plc delivered a resounding half-year performance, characterised by robust revenue growth, margin expansion, and improved capital efficiency. The company’s transformation into a digital-first and fintech-enabled telecommunications group is gaining traction, with data and Airtel Money now the twin pillars of growth. While macroeconomic headwinds, inflationary pressures, and currency risks persist across its markets, Airtel Africa’s localized financing structure, operational discipline, and growing digital ecosystem position it strongly for sustained earnings growth into FY2026 and beyond.
Executive Summary
Airtel Africa Plc delivered another period of solid growth for the half year ended 30 September 2025, sustaining its robust operational and financial performance despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds across its 14 markets. The Group’s results reflect a strong execution of its customer-focused strategy, underpinned by expanding digital adoption, network investment, and the growing contribution of its fintech operations. Revenue grew 25.8% year-on-year to $2.98 billion (constant currency: +24.5%), driven by a sharp increase in data and mobile money revenues and supported by currency appreciation across key markets. EBITDA surged 33.2% to $1.45 billion, translating to a 48.5% margin, while profit after tax jumped 375% to $376 million, bolstered by currency gains in Nigeria and the Central African franc region. The Group continued to strengthen its financial position, with operating cash flow up 46.5%, leverage improving to 2.1x, and 95% of OpCo debt now denominated in local currency, reducing foreign exchange exposure. A higher interim dividend of 2.84 cents per share (+9.2%) and a $100 million share buyback programme reaffirm management’s confidence in the Group’s strong fundamentals and earnings momentum.
Financial Highlights (Half-Year Ended 30 September 2025)
Key Metrics Sep-25 ($m) Sep-24 ($m) YoY Change (%)
Revenue 2,982 2,370 +25.8%
EBITDA 1,447 1,087 +33.2%
EBITDA Margin 48.5% 45.8% +268 bps
Operating Profit 959 706 +35.9%
Profit Before Tax 656 178 +269%
Profit After Tax 376 79 +375.3%
Basic EPS ($ cents) 8.3 0.8 +908.6%
EPS (before exceptional items) 8.3 4.9 +69.9%
Operating Free Cash Flow 1,129 771 +46.5%
Net Operating Cash Flow 1,388 979 +41.8%
Capex 318 316 +0.6%
Net Debt 5,500
5,900 -6.8%
Leverage Ratio 2.1x 2.3x -0.2x
Operational Highlights
- Customer Growth: Total customer base rose 11% year-on-year to 173.8 million, with data subscribers up 18.4% to 78.1 million.
- Smartphone Penetration: Increased by 3.8% to 46.8%, further accelerating data consumption across markets.
- Data Traffic: Expanded by 45%, reflecting increasing digital engagement and 4G coverage.
- Airtel Money: Customer base up 20% to 49.8 million; annualised total processed value (TPV) rose 35.9% to $193 billion, with ARPU up 11% in constant currency.
- Network Expansion: Over 2,350 new sites rolled out, increasing total sites to 38,300, of which 98.5% are 4G-enabled. Fibre network expanded by 4,000 km, reaching 81,000 km in total coverage.
Segment Performance
Data Services – Now Airtel’s Largest Revenue Stream
Data revenue grew 37% in constant currency to $1.16 billion, surpassing voice to become the Group’s largest contributor to total revenue. The expansion reflects increased smartphone usage, network quality improvements, and higher data affordability.
- Data users: 78.1 million (+18.4%)
- Smartphone penetration: 46.8% (+3.8pp)
- Average data ARPU: +16.8% YoY
- Average data usage: 8.2GB per user per month
The shift towards data-centric services underscores the Group’s success in monetising digital adoption and expanding broadband accessibility across its markets.
Voice Services – Sustained Growth Despite Substitution Effects
Voice revenue increased 13.2% in constant currency, supported by subscriber growth (+11%) and continued relevance of voice services in less data-penetrated regions. Although voice’s share of total revenue is gradually declining, it remains a critical component of Airtel’s value proposition, particularly in rural markets.
Mobile Money – Expanding Financial Inclusion and Profitability
Airtel Money continues to be a growth engine, contributing 21% of Group revenue.
Mobile Money Metrics (H1 2025)
Result YoY Change
Revenue $623m +30.2%
Customer Base 49.8m +20.0%
Annualised TPV $193bn +35.9%
ARPU (constant currency) +11% —
The platform’s ecosystem expansion through merchant payments, savings, and lending products continues to enhance user engagement. The planned IPO of Airtel Money remains on track for H1 2026, expected to unlock additional value for shareholders and strengthen the Group’s fintech positioning.
Regional Performance Breakdown
Region Revenue ($m) YoY Growth (Constant Currency)
EBITDA Margin
Nigeria 697 +49.0% 56.0%
East Africa 1,050 +15.6% 48.0%
Francophone Africa 749 +14.5% 39.5%
Overall, currency appreciation across East and Francophone Africa, coupled with strong local demand in Nigeria, significantly enhanced reported growth rates and profitability margins.
Cost and Capital Structure
Airtel’s disciplined financial management continues to deliver efficiency gains and reduce risk exposure.
- Finance Costs: Declined sharply to $304 million (from $528 million), reflecting reduced FX losses and better debt structure.
- EBITDA Margin: Expanded 268bps year-on-year to 48.5%, driven by operational efficiency and cost optimization.
- Debt Localisation: 95% of OpCo debt now in local currency, reducing FX exposure (vs 89% a year ago).
- Leverage: Improved to 2.1x (lease-adjusted: 0.8x) from 2.3x in H1 2024.
Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure
Cash Flow Metrics ($m) H1 2025 H1 2024 % Δ YoY
Net Cash from Operations 1,388 979 +41.8%
Operating Free Cash Flow 1,129 771 +46.5%
Capex 318 316 +0.6%
Capex Guidance (FY2026) $875m–$900m $800m +10.0–12.5%
Airtel plans to increase full-year capex to support network expansion, 5G rollout, and data centre infrastructure investments across key markets.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
- Interim Dividend: 2.84 cents per share (+9.2%) in line with progressive dividend policy.
- Share Buyback: $100 million programme on track for completion by 31 March 2026.
- ROIC: Improved on the back of higher profitability and operating cash flow generation.
Management Commentary
“Our strategy has been focused on providing a superior customer experience and the strength of these results is testament to the initiatives we’ve implemented across the business,” said Sunil Taldar, Chief Executive Officer.
“Digital innovation is at the heart of our growth, and the strong adoption of the MyAirtel app reflects our progress in deepening customer engagement. With smartphone penetration reaching 46.8%, we see substantial opportunity to further scale the digital economy. The strength of our revenue performance – up 24.5% in constant currency – and cost efficiencies have driven EBITDA margins to 49%.
“We’re confident that the combination of strong execution, disciplined capital allocation, and rising digital adoption will continue to deliver long-term value for shareholders.”
Analyst Commentary
Airtel Africa’s half-year 2025 results reflect a decisive rebound in profitability and cash generation, underpinned by strong data and mobile money growth. The Group’s ability to navigate FX volatility, improve leverage, and expand its 4G/5G footprint demonstrates operational resilience and strategic execution.
Data has now overtaken voice as the Group’s primary growth driver, while the fintech segment continues to diversify revenue streams and deepen financial inclusion. Continued investment in network expansion and the upcoming Airtel Money IPO are poised to unlock additional value, positioning Airtel Africa for sustainable long-term growth.
Outlook
The outlook for FY2026 remains positive. With macroeconomic stabilisation in Nigeria, expanding smartphone adoption, and the ongoing digital transformation across sub-Saharan Africa, Airtel Africa is well-positioned to sustain double-digit revenue and earnings growth.
Management’s increased capex guidance and focus on operational excellence reflect confidence in capturing emerging opportunities in both the data and fintech ecosystems. Despite FX and inflation risks, the Group’s strong balance sheet, expanding margins, and digital ecosystem integration provide a firm foundation for continued performance improvement.
Conclusion
Airtel Africa Plc delivered a strong H1 2025 performance, achieving record profitability and cash flow amid improving FX conditions and continued digital adoption. The Group’s strategy—anchored on customer experience, financial inclusion, and disciplined capital deployment—is yielding tangible results.
With data and fintech segments now driving more than half of Group revenues, Airtel Africa stands as one of the most resilient and fast-growing telecom operators in emerging markets. The Company’s focused execution, expanding digital ecosystem, and prudent financial management are expected to sustain momentum and deliver long-term shareholder value in the coming quarters.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user Wane_Investment_House holds no position in NGSE:AIRTELAFRI. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.