If you're investing in the Nairobi Securities Exchange and don't own Safaricom, you need to seriously rethink your portfolio. This isn't hype — it's the closest thing we have to a blue-chip monopoly on the NSE, and the numbers back it up.
The Dominance Is Real
Safaricom controls roughly 65% of Kenya's mobile market — 46 million active subscribers in a country of 55 million. That's not a market share; that's a stranglehold. Whether it's calling, data, or money, almost every Kenyan touches Safaricom daily. That kind of entrenchment doesn't erode easily.
The stock peaked at 45.25 KES back in 2021 during the post-COVID euphoria. After a painful correction and years of sideways trading, it's rebounded to around 34 KES as of February 2026 — a roughly 92% gain over the past year alone. That's not a fluke. It's driven by record earnings and real strategic moves.
M-Pesa: The Engine
M-Pesa isn't just a feature — it's the backbone of Kenya's financial system. In the first half of FY2026, it contributed 88 billion KES in revenue, up 14% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total half-year revenue. From paying rent to buying groceries to sending money upcountry, M-Pesa is embedded in everyday life in a way no competitor can replicate.
Now layer on what's happening with Ziidi. The Money Market Fund launched in 2025 and has already ballooned to 15.1 billion KES in assets under management — up from just 1.3 billion a year earlier — with over 1.15 million investors. Entry starts at 100 KES. That's not fintech for the elite; that's mass-market wealth building.
And just this week, Ziidi Trader went live — enabling stock trading on the NSE directly through M-Pesa. It's already capturing around 40% of daily trades. Think about what that means: millions of Kenyans who've never opened a brokerage account can now buy shares from their phone. Safaricom is quietly becoming the gateway to capital markets in this country.
Ethiopia: The Big Swing
The Ethiopia expansion is the part of the story that splits opinion. Safaricom entered in 2022, and yes, losses have been steep — 24.3 billion KES in the first half of FY2026 alone. But the trajectory matters. Customer numbers have hit 12.2 million, service revenue surged 136% to 6.2 billion KES, 4G coverage is at 57%, and losses narrowed by 34%. In a market of 120 million people with improving forex regulations, break-even is projected around 2027. If they pull it off, Ethiopia alone could re-rate the entire stock.
The Numbers That Matter
Group-wide half-year performance tells the story clearly:
- Net profit: 42.8 billion KES — up 52%
- Service revenue: 199.9 billion KES — up 11%
- Interim dividend: 0.85 KES per share — up 55%
That dividend hike signals management confidence. They're not just growing — they're returning cash to shareholders while investing aggressively.
My Take
Safaricom is transitioning from a telco into a tech and financial services company. M-Pesa, Ziidi, and the Ethiopia play are all pieces of a much bigger puzzle. The stock is still trading well below its 2021 highs, which means there's room to run as the market catches up to the earnings reality.
This isn't a trade. It's a hold. Maybe the best long-term hold on the NSE right now. The moat is deep, the cash flows are strong, and the growth levers — fintech expansion, Ethiopia, capital markets access — are all firing at the same time.
I'm long Safaricom and adding on any meaningful dip.
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Disclaimer
The user Titotnk holds no position in NASE:SCOM. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
