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9104: Rising Dividend Will Drive Attractive Shareholder Returns In 2025

Analysts Adjust Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Price Target Amid Upbeat Dividend and Earnings Guidance

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9104
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 17 Aug 2025

Update shared on 07 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.17%
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Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines by approximately ¥9 to reflect a modestly higher discount rate and slightly lower profit margin assumptions, partially offset by improved expectations for revenue growth.

What's in the News

  • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has received in principle board approval to form two 50:50 joint ventures with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines to operate Very Large Ethane Carriers, expanding MOL's presence in ethane and broader energy logistics and supporting India maritime growth plans (company announcement).
  • Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has raised its fiscal 2025 annual dividend forecast to ¥200 per share, lifting the year end dividend projection by ¥25 to ¥115 in line with its BLUE ACTION 2035 plan to enhance shareholder returns while investing for stable medium to long term revenue (company guidance).
  • The company has slightly lowered consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026, with revenue now expected at JPY 1,750 billion, operating profit trimmed to JPY 104 billion, and profit attributable to owners reduced to JPY 180 billion, implying net income per share of JPY 523.16 (company guidance).
  • The board of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has scheduled a meeting on November 4, 2025, with the agenda to consider payment of a dividend, indicating a continued focus on capital returns (board meeting notice).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has edged down slightly, from approximately ¥5,336 to ¥5,327 per share, reflecting a modestly more conservative outlook.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly, from about 7.65 percent to 7.73 percent, increasing the rate applied to future cash flows.
  • The revenue growth assumption has improved meaningfully, moving from a decline of roughly 0.78 percent to a milder decline of about 0.14 percent, indicating a more favorable top line trajectory.
  • The net profit margin assumption has been trimmed slightly, from around 11.06 percent to 10.80 percent, incorporating slightly lower profitability expectations.
  • The future P/E multiple has increased marginally, from about 10.60 times to 10.65 times, implying a slightly higher valuation on forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

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