Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 8.01%Narrative Update on Trend Micro Analyst Price Target
Analysts have modestly reduced their average price target on Trend Micro, cutting estimated fair value from approximately ¥9,150 to about ¥8,417. They are factoring in slightly higher discount rates, marginally lower long term profit margins, and a more conservative future price to earnings multiple, while revenue growth expectations remain stable.
What's in the News
- Board meeting scheduled for November 12, 2025, to consider and approve a repurchase of common shares, signaling continued emphasis on shareholder returns (Board Meeting).
- Board meeting set for December 4, 2025, to determine the details of stock acquisition rights to be issued as stock options, pointing to ongoing use of equity-based incentives (Board Meeting).
- Launch of Trend Vision One AI Security Package at AWS re:Invent, positioning Trend Micro as an early mover in end to end AI application stack security (Product Related Announcement).
- Release of the 2026 Security Predictions Report, warning of the industrialization of cybercrime driven by AI and automation, and highlighting hybrid cloud, software supply chains, and AI infrastructure as prime targets (Product Related Announcement).
- Letter of intent to form Magna AI with Wistron Digital Technology Holding Company, creating a full stack global AI transformation factory that integrates AI infrastructure, applications, and security (Product Related Announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: reduced modestly from approximately ¥9,150 to about ¥8,417, reflecting a slightly more conservative fair value assessment.
- Discount Rate: risen slightly from around 6.44% to about 6.48%, implying a marginally higher required return and risk premium.
- Revenue Growth: increased slightly from roughly 4.84% to about 4.87%, indicating stable to marginally stronger top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: edged down from about 16.03% to roughly 15.91%, signaling a small anticipated compression in profitability.
- Future P/E: lowered from approximately 29.13x to about 27.00x, pointing to a somewhat more conservative valuation multiple on future earnings.
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