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3092: Dividend Outlook Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings Prospects

AI-driven Personalization And Cross-Border Demand Will Reshape Global E-Commerce

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3092
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 19 Jun 2025

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 6.87%
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-16.2%
7D
3.1%

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on ZOZO to approximately ¥1,850 from about ¥1,990, citing a modestly higher discount rate and slightly lower margin expectations, while remaining constructive on revenue growth and longer term earnings power.

What's in the News

  • ZOZO announced a second quarter dividend of JPY 19 per share for the period ended September 30, 2025, adjusted for a three-for-one stock split completed on April 1, 2025 (company announcement)
  • The new interim dividend compares with JPY 53 per share a year earlier, reflecting the impact of the stock split and updated capital return policy (company announcement)
  • The dividend will be payable on November 25, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the specified date (company announcement)
  • For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, ZOZO guided for a year-end dividend of JPY 20 per share, versus JPY 54 per share a year ago, on a post-split basis (company announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has fallen slightly to approximately ¥1,850 from about ¥1,990, reflecting more conservative assumptions.
  • The discount rate has risen modestly to about 6.45 percent from roughly 6.26 percent, implying a slightly higher required return.
  • Revenue growth has edged up slightly to around 8.80 percent from about 8.54 percent, indicating a marginally stronger top line outlook.
  • The net profit margin has eased slightly to roughly 22.75 percent from about 23.13 percent, pointing to somewhat softer profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E has declined moderately to roughly 30.1x from about 32.4x, suggesting a somewhat lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystHighTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystHighTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystHighTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.