Update shared on 09 Dec 2025
Analysts have raised their price target on Nexon to ¥4,000 from ¥3,600, citing growing conviction that ARC Raiders could become a fourth blockbuster franchise and that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will provide a meaningful tailwind for FC Online.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish analysts view the upgraded price target as evidence that Nexon is entering a new growth phase, supported by both its emerging and established franchises. The reassessment reflects increased confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its content roadmap while capitalizing on upcoming macro catalysts in the gaming market.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see ARC Raiders as a potential fourth blockbuster franchise, which could structurally raise Nexon’s medium term revenue base and justify a higher valuation multiple.
- Reports of peak concurrent users setting new records each weekend are interpreted as early proof of strong product market fit, reducing execution risk around user acquisition and monetization ramps.
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is viewed as a powerful catalyst for FC Online engagement and in game spending, supporting a more visible growth trajectory for Nexon’s sports portfolio over the next few years.
- The combination of a new hit title and a major event driven tailwind is seen as diversifying Nexon’s earnings drivers, which could lower perceived earnings volatility and support sustained multiple expansion.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts caution that early concurrent user momentum in ARC Raiders may not translate into long term retention and monetization, leaving upside to estimates and the new target price at risk if engagement normalizes.
- There is concern that expectations for ARC Raiders as a “fourth blockbuster” may already be embedded in the higher target, limiting further valuation upside if performance is solid but not breakout.
- Reliance on the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a key tailwind for FC Online introduces event timing risk, as any regulatory, licensing, or competitive shifts in sports titles could dampen the anticipated spending boost.
- Some see the rapid target increase as compressing the margin of safety, with future share performance more dependent on flawless execution across live operations, content updates, and global marketing for both ARC Raiders and FC Online.
What's in the News
- The board authorizes a new share buyback plan as of November 11, 2025, signaling continued commitment to shareholder returns (company announcement).
- Nexon launches a share repurchase program of up to 10,000,000 shares, or 1.26% of issued share capital, for up to ¥25,000 million, with the program running through January 26, 2026 (company announcement).
- The company issues consolidated guidance for fiscal 2025, projecting revenue of ¥467.3 billion to ¥480.8 billion and operating profit of ¥138.6 billion to ¥148.7 billion, with EPS of ¥128.58 to ¥139.00 (company guidance).
- Nexon doubles its year-end dividend forecast for fiscal 2025 to ¥30.0 per share, implying annual dividends of ¥45.0 per share, reflecting a stronger shareholder return policy (company guidance).
- Ongoing execution of the buyback program, with a total of 7,580,300 shares repurchased for approximately ¥25.0 billion between August 13 and October 23, 2025, representing about 0.95% of shares (company filing).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate, unchanged at approximately ¥3,461 per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment despite recent stock catalysts.
- Discount Rate, edged down slightly from about 7.12% to 7.12%, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk profile in the updated valuation model.
- Revenue Growth, effectively flat at around 7.39% annually, suggesting that medium term top line expectations remain stable.
- Net Profit Margin, essentially unchanged at roughly 24.25%, indicating no meaningful revision to long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E, nudged down slightly from about 24.31x to 24.31x, implying a modestly lower required valuation multiple in the refreshed outlook.
Have other thoughts on NEXON?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeDisclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.