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4612: Share Buyback And M&A Focus Will Drive Shareholder Value

US Infrastructure Recovery And Asia Pacific Expansion Will Unlock Opportunities

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4612
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Nov 2024

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.72%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
2.3%
7D
-0.2%

Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target for Nippon Paint Holdings to approximately ¥1,245 from about ¥1,255. This reflects a modestly lower fair value and profit margin outlook, which is only partially offset by marginally stronger expected revenue growth and a slightly cheaper future earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • Nippon Paint Holdings has launched a share repurchase program of up to 35,000,000 shares, or about 1.49% of outstanding shares, for up to ¥30 billion, with the program running through February 28, 2026 (company announcement)
  • The Board of Directors approved the new buyback plan on October 9, 2025, underscoring management’s commitment to shareholder returns (Board resolution)
  • The company is actively seeking acquisitions, pursuing both bolt on deals to support partner growth in nearby markets and larger, more autonomous platform style acquisitions similar to its DuluxGroup and AOC transactions (management commentary)
  • Management reiterated that M&A remains the preferred capital allocation priority, supported by a strengthened balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging (management commentary)
  • Nippon Paint Holdings recently held an Analyst/Investor Day, providing updated insight into its strategy, capital allocation plans, and growth outlook (Analyst/Investor Day)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: edged down slightly to approximately ¥1,245 from about ¥1,255, reflecting a modest reduction in intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: decreased marginally to around 6.37 percent from roughly 6.41 percent, implying a slightly lower required return.
  • Revenue Growth: increased modestly to about 5.68 percent from roughly 5.49 percent, indicating a small uplift in top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: eased slightly to around 9.92 percent from about 9.95 percent, signaling a minor compression in expected profitability.
  • Future P/E: slipped modestly to roughly 17.34x from about 17.53x, suggesting a slightly cheaper valuation on forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.