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3402: Future Buybacks And Higher Dividend Will Shape Balanced Capital Returns

Project AP-G 2025 And Performance Chemicals Poised To Boost Profit Margins And Revenue Growth

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3402
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 05 Jan 2025

Update shared on 16 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 2.71%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
3.6%
7D
-2.2%

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Toray Industries to approximately ¥1,137 from about ¥1,107, citing slightly improved discount rate assumptions and expectations for a modestly stronger earnings multiple, while long term growth and margin forecasts remain largely unchanged.

What's in the News

  • The board of directors is scheduled to meet on November 14, 2025 to approve additional share buybacks and address other agenda items (company announcement).
  • Revised fiscal 2026 guidance lowers the revenue outlook to JPY 2,630 billion from JPY 2,670 billion, while keeping core operating income and profit forecasts unchanged and slightly raising full-year EPS guidance (company guidance).
  • The second quarter-end dividend for the year ending March 31, 2026 has been increased to JPY 10.00 per share from JPY 9.00, payable on December 2, 2025 (company announcement).
  • A new share repurchase program authorizes the buyback of up to 63 million shares, or 4.2% of issued shares, for up to JPY 50 billion. All repurchased shares are to be cancelled, and the program will run through May 31, 2026 (company announcement).
  • Under the November 7, 2024 buyback, Toray has completed repurchases totaling more than 102 million shares, or about 6.56% of shares, for roughly JPY 100 billion as of October 10, 2025 (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly to about ¥1,137 from roughly ¥1,107 per share.
  • The discount rate has fallen marginally to around 6.34 percent from about 6.40 percent, supporting a modest uplift in valuation.
  • Revenue growth has edged down slightly, with the long term annual growth assumption now about 5.31 percent versus roughly 5.33 percent previously.
  • The net profit margin has decreased marginally to roughly 4.35 percent from about 4.36 percent, indicating a very small softening in expected profitability.
  • The future P/E has risen slightly, with the target multiple increasing to about 13.78 times from roughly 13.39 times forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.