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8766: AI Partnership Will Drive Future Profits And Capital Returns

Re-New Strategy And M&A Aim To Boost Growth But Face Risks In Japanese Insurance Transformation

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8766
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 08 Dec 2024

Update shared on 21 Dec 2025

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3.1%

Narrative Update on Analyst Price Target

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Tokio Marine Holdings to ¥6,675, citing slightly improved projected profit margins that more than offset marginally lower revenue growth expectations and a small compression in assumed future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Tokio Marine is partnering with OpenAI to develop AI agents that leverage in depth data analysis to improve insurance product planning and handle customer inquiries more efficiently (Nikkei Asia).
  • The board has approved a new share repurchase program of up to 80,000,000 shares, or about 4.2% of issued share capital, with a budget of ¥130,000 million, valid through April 30, 2026.
  • Management revised earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, now targeting ordinary profit of ¥1,230,000 million and net income attributable to shareholders of ¥910,000 million, or ¥476.96 per share.
  • The board approved an interim dividend of ¥105.5 per share for the second quarter ended September 30, 2025, and raised the full year dividend forecast to ¥211 per share, up from ¥210.
  • Under a previously announced buyback program, the company repurchased 17,703,600 shares through September 18, 2025, equal to about 0.92% of shares outstanding, for a total of approximately ¥110,000 million.

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately ¥6,676 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
  • The Discount Rate is held steady at 4.8%, reflecting an unchanged view of Tokio Marine's risk profile and cost of equity.
  • Revenue Growth is lowered slightly from about 2.67% to 2.65% annually, pointing to a marginally more cautious top-line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin has risen slightly from roughly 11.23% to 11.43%, implying modestly higher expected profitability.
  • The Future P/E is reduced slightly from about 14.22x to 13.99x, signaling a small compression in the assumed valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.