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8750: Overseas Expansion And Capital Returns Will Support Measured Future Upside

Analysts Raise Dai-ichi Life Price Target as Buyback Program Completes and Expansion Plans Progress

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8750
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Nov 2024

Update shared on 16 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 2.42%
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Analysts have nudged their price target on Dai-ichi Life Holdings higher, lifting estimated fair value from ¥1,361 to ¥1,394. They are factoring in slightly faster revenue growth, a modest improvement in profit margins, and a lower discount rate, while keeping future valuation multiples broadly intact.

What's in the News

  • Dai-ichi Life Holdings is actively pursuing acquisitions and strategic investments, with management highlighting a focus on overseas growth businesses, asset management, and bolt-on deals to accelerate corporate value growth (company guidance/management commentary).
  • The company has raised its consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, now expecting ordinary revenues of JPY 10,322,000 million and net income attributable to shareholders of JPY 400,000 million, supported by gains on securities sales amid robust stock markets (company guidance).
  • Dai-ichi Life is signaling a stronger shareholder return stance by increasing its year-end dividend forecast for fiscal 2026 to ¥27.00 per share, up 3 yen from the prior forecast, even though total annual dividends are projected below the previous year (dividend announcement).
  • The company has completed a share repurchase program announced in May 2025, buying back 43,786,100 shares, or about 1.19% of shares outstanding, for approximately ¥50 billion between July and September 2025 (buyback update).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: has risen slightly from ¥1,361 to ¥1,394 per share. This reflects a modest uplift in estimated intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: has fallen slightly from 5.22% to 4.80%, supporting a higher present value of future cash flows.
  • Revenue Growth: has nudged higher from approximately 3.50% to 4.00%, indicating a slightly more optimistic top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: has edged up from about 4.34% to 4.39%, implying a marginal improvement in expected profitability.
  • Future P/E: is essentially unchanged, easing marginally from 12.45x to 12.43x. This suggests valuation multiples remain broadly stable.

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