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8604: Dividend Will Rise As Profitability And Payout Outlook Remain Stable

Buyback Program And Demographic Trends Will Shape Future Performance Outlook

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8604
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 10 Nov 2024

Update shared on 08 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 8.62%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
41.7%
7D
-3.2%

Analysts have raised their price target on Nomura Holdings from ¥1,160 to ¥1,260, citing stronger projected revenue growth, a modestly higher expected profit margin, and an uptick in anticipated future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Announced a cash dividend of JPY 27 per share for shareholders of record at the end of September 2025, payable on December 1, 2025 (company announcement)
  • The new dividend represents an increase from the previous year's JPY 23 per share and signals a stronger capital return to shareholders (company announcement)
  • The record date for eligibility is September 30, 2025, which sets a clear timeline for investors tracking dividend entitlements (company announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has increased from ¥1,160 to ¥1,260, reflecting a modest upward reassessment of Nomura Holdings' intrinsic value.
  • The discount rate is unchanged at 11.1%, indicating that the risk and return assumptions used in the valuation remain consistent.
  • The revenue growth assumption has risen significantly from approximately 33.0% to about 54.5%, pointing to a more optimistic outlook for top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin forecast has edged up slightly from 16.57% to 16.72%, suggesting a marginal improvement in expected profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has increased from 13.68x to 14.63x, implying a modestly higher valuation framework for Nomura Holdings' future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.