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8473: Dividend Increase And Buyback Will Support Capital Returns And Stability

Share Exchange And Regional Alliances Will Support Earnings Momentum Ahead

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8473
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 30 Nov 2024

Update shared on 10 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 49%
Previous
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
66.7%
7D
-4.5%

Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for SBI Holdings to ¥3,323, roughly half its previous level, while still pointing to slightly faster expected revenue growth, a modestly stronger profit margin, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple as support for the new target.

What's in the News

  • The board has approved a new share repurchase program of 10,000,000 shares (3.09% of outstanding shares), for up to ¥50 billion, running through March 31, 2026, to enhance capital efficiency (Board resolution, Nov 21, 2025).
  • Directors have approved an interim dividend increase to JPY 40.00 per share for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, up from JPY 30.00 a year earlier (Board meeting, Oct 31, 2025).
  • The company will implement a 2-for-1 stock split effective November 27, 2025, together with partial amendments to its Articles of Incorporation (Board resolution, Oct 31, 2025).
  • Board meetings were held in November and December 2025 to consider and approve stock acquisition rights as stock options for directors, executive officers, and employees of the company and its subsidiaries (Board meetings, Nov 21 and Dec 09, 2025).
  • The board convened to review the approval for listing a consolidated subsidiary, indicating continued portfolio development within the group (Board meeting, Nov 13, 2025).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate was reduced significantly from ¥6,538 to ¥3,323, implying a roughly 49 percent cut in the intrinsic value assessment.
  • Discount Rate remained unchanged at 11.1 percent, indicating no revision to the assumed risk profile or cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth was raised slightly from 42.7 percent to approximately 45.9 percent, reflecting a modestly more optimistic top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin was nudged up from about 11.38 percent to roughly 11.51 percent, suggesting a marginal improvement in expected profitability.
  • Future P/E increased slightly from 18.81 times to about 18.91 times, pointing to a small uplift in the assumed valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.