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8015: Softer Revenue Outlook And Rising Payouts Could Pressure Future Returns

Update shared on 07 Nov 2025

Fair value Increased 2.42%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
79.4%
7D
2.3%

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Toyota Tsusho by approximately ¥100 to ¥4,238 per share. This adjustment is based on updated assumptions regarding revenue growth and profitability.

What's in the News

  • Toyota Tsusho revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The company now expects profit attributable to owners of the parent to be JPY 360,000 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 341.00. This update reflects stronger second quarter results and a weaker yen, compared to previous forecasts (Key Developments).
  • The company increased its dividend for the second quarter ending March 31, 2026, announcing a payout of JPY 58.00 per share. This is up from JPY 50.00 per share a year earlier, and the projected full-year dividend is now expected to match this increase (Key Developments).
  • Toyota Tsusho's Board of Directors held a meeting on October 31, 2025, to consider revised forecasts for both consolidated financial results and dividends for the upcoming fiscal period (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: The estimate increased slightly from ¥4,138 to ¥4,238 per share.
  • Discount Rate: The rate decreased marginally from 6.89% to 6.87%.
  • Revenue Growth Assumption: This figure was lowered from 4.10% to 3.18%.
  • Net Profit Margin: The margin edged down from 3.52% to 3.50%.
  • Future P/E Ratio: The ratio increased from 12.95x to 13.35x.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.