Update shared on 15 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 4.15%Narrative Update on Analyst Price Target
Analysts have raised their price target on ITOCHU from ¥9,770 to approximately ¥10,175. They cite slightly lower discount rate assumptions, modestly stronger profit margin expectations, and a somewhat higher projected future P/E multiple, which together offset a marginal reduction in long term revenue growth forecasts.
What's in the News
- ITOCHU and Japanese gas majors secure a 33.3% combined stake in the Live Oak e natural gas project in Nebraska, targeting 250 MW of electrolysis and 75 ktpa of methanation, with commercial operations aimed for 2030 and exports of carbon neutral e NG to Japan (Key Developments).
- The Live Oak partnership with TotalEnergies, TES, Osaka Gas, and Toho Gas is designed to support Japan's goal of injecting 1% carbon neutral gas into its gas grid by 2030, leveraging captured biogenic CO2 and growing US renewable power capacity (Key Developments).
- ITOCHU deepens its uranium sector presence through an expanded role in the Nurlikum Mining joint venture with Navoiyuran and Orano, supporting industrial development of Uzbekistan's South Djengeldi deposit with an expected 10 year production horizon and up to 700 tons of uranium annually (Key Developments).
- A share buyback tranche completed on September 30, 2025, saw ITOCHU repurchase 12,593,800 shares, or 0.89% of shares, for approximately ¥98.35 billion under the program announced on May 2, 2025, indicating ongoing capital returns to shareholders (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from approximately ¥9,770 to about ¥10,175, reflecting modest upside versus the prior valuation.
- Discount Rate has edged down marginally from roughly 6.66% to about 6.64%, implying a slightly lower required return in the updated model.
- Revenue Growth has eased slightly from around 4.79% to about 4.71%, indicating a modestly more conservative long term top line outlook.
- Net Profit Margin has risen slightly from roughly 5.94% to about 5.99%, pointing to a small improvement in expected profitability.
- Future P/E has increased moderately from about 16.14x to roughly 16.67x, suggesting a somewhat higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
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