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6301: Dividend Increase And Buybacks Will Support Returns Amid Currency Risks

Share Buyback And Hybrid Powertrains Will Drive Demand And Margin Improvement

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6301
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 15 Dec 2024

Update shared on 09 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.34%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
21.8%
7D
0.8%

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Komatsu to ¥5,150 from ¥5,167.50, citing a slightly higher discount rate and softer margin expectations. These factors more than offset a small upward revision to long term revenue growth and the assumed future P E multiple.

What's in the News

  • Raised fiscal year 2026 guidance, with projected net sales increased to JPY 3,888,000 million and operating income to JPY 500,000 million, reflecting yen depreciation, U.S. tariffs and an updated market outlook (company guidance).
  • The board approved a year-on-year dividend increase to JPY 95 per share, up from JPY 83, with a total payout of JPY 86,318 million effective December 1, 2025 (board resolution).
  • Completed a share repurchase program totaling 14,962,300 shares, or 1.63% of shares, for approximately JPY 70,235 million under the buyback announced on April 28, 2025 (company buyback update).
  • Entered a strategic collaboration with Cummins and Wabtec to develop hybrid powertrains for large mining haul trucks, aiming to cut emissions and lower operating costs for mining customers (strategic alliance announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has edged down slightly to ¥5,150 from ¥5,167.5, reflecting modestly more conservative assumptions.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly to 7.09% from 7.05%, increasing the required return applied in the valuation model.
  • Revenue growth has inched up to 2.08% from 2.06%, indicating a marginally more optimistic long term growth outlook.
  • The net profit margin has declined moderately to 9.88% from 10.21%, pointing to softer profitability expectations.
  • The future P/E has increased slightly to 12.91x from 12.53x, suggesting a modestly higher assumed valuation multiple on future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.