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1963: Upgraded Earnings Outlook And Richer Multiple Will Shape Balanced Future Risk

Global Energy Transition And Capital Projects Will Drive Stability

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1963
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 Jul 2025

Update shared on 08 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 7.41%
Previous
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
44.1%
7D
-2.0%

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for JGC Holdings by ¥120 to ¥1,740, reflecting a modestly higher assumed future valuation multiple, despite slightly weaker long term revenue growth and profitability assumptions.

What's in the News

  • Raised full year 2025 to 2026 net sales guidance to JPY 770 billion from JPY 690 billion, citing stronger overseas EPC orders and additional project agreements (company guidance).
  • Lifted operating profit forecast to JPY 28 billion from JPY 21 billion as multiple domestic and international EPC projects progress more profitably than expected (company guidance).
  • More than doubled projected profit attributable to owners of parent to JPY 28 billion from JPY 15 billion, implying a sharp upgrade in expected earnings per share to JPY 115.83 from JPY 62.08 (company guidance).
  • Updated foreign exchange assumption for the second half to 145 yen per US dollar from 140, further supporting upward revisions to revenue and profit forecasts (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate raised modestly to ¥1,740 from ¥1,620, implying a higher target valuation despite softer long term fundamentals.
  • Discount Rate increased slightly to 6.66 percent from 6.63 percent, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue Growth trimmed slightly to negative 3.00 percent from negative 2.94 percent, indicating a marginally weaker long term top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin reduced slightly to 4.71 percent from 4.77 percent, signaling a small downgrade to expected profitability.
  • Future P/E increased to 14.28 times from 13.10 times, suggesting a somewhat richer multiple applied to forecast earnings.

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