CPR: Margin Momentum Will Drive Stronger Earnings Expectations Into 2025

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Davide Campari-Milano slightly higher to about EUR 6.88 from EUR 6.76, reflecting stronger margin expectations and a series of recent target hikes and rating upgrades, despite somewhat softer revenue growth assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates show a gradual improvement in sentiment around Davide Campari-Milano, with several price target increases and rating upgrades balanced by more cautious views on valuation and growth visibility.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see the recent Q3 EBIT beat of around 15 percent, driven by strong gross margins, as evidence that management can execute on cost control and premiumization, supporting upside to earnings estimates.
• Multiple price target hikes, including moves toward the mid to high EUR 6 to EUR 7 range, signal growing conviction that the current share price undervalues the company’s margin resilience and brand portfolio strength.
• The shift in stance from Underweight to more neutral or sector-level ratings indicates that earlier concerns about overvaluation and slowing growth are easing as expectations reset to more achievable levels.
• Some bullish analysts argue that with the stock trading below or in line with refreshed price targets, the risk reward profile is becoming more compelling if margin momentum can be sustained into 2025.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts maintain more cautious or neutral ratings, highlighting that even after the recent de-rating, the stock still embeds ambitious long-term growth assumptions relative to peers.
• The modest downward adjustment of certain price targets underscores lingering concerns about slower top-line growth and the potential for normalization in margins after a strong Q3.
• Some remain wary that valuation leaves limited room for execution missteps, especially if consumer demand weakens in key markets or marketing investments need to rise to protect share.
• Despite upgrades toward Neutral or Sector Perform, the lack of broad-based Buy recommendations suggests that many analysts see the shares as fairly valued rather than a clear bargain at current levels.

What's in the News

• Board meeting scheduled for March 4, 2026, to review and approve the annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025 (company filing).
• Board meeting set for May 6, 2026, to consider and approve additional financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (company filing).
• Board meeting planned for July 29, 2026, to approve the half-year report for the period ended June 30, 2026 (company filing).
• Board meeting scheduled for October 28, 2026, to approve additional financial information for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 (company filing).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly, with fair value moving from €6.76 to about €6.88, reflecting modestly stronger margin expectations.
• Discount Rate has increased marginally from 8.83 percent to about 8.97 percent, implying a slightly higher required return and modestly more conservative valuation assumptions.
• Revenue Growth has eased from roughly 4.55 percent to about 4.03 percent, indicating somewhat lower top line expectations over the forecast horizon.
• Net Profit Margin has improved from around 13.65 percent to about 14.30 percent, signaling higher anticipated profitability and operating efficiency.
• Future P/E has edged down from about 21.74x to roughly 21.47x, suggesting a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.