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ENI: LNG Expansion And Fusion Power Agreement Will Shape Balanced Outlook

ENI: Future Production And Fusion Deal Will Shape Energy Transition Outlook

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ENI
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 07 Nov 2024

Update shared on 18 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.69%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
23.0%
7D
-1.1%

Analysts have nudged their price target for Eni slightly higher to reflect a fair value increase to approximately $16.54. This revision is underpinned by expectations for stronger revenue growth that more than offsets a marginally higher discount rate and a slightly lower projected profit margin.

What's in the News

  • Reached Final Investment Decision on the Coral North FLNG project offshore Mozambique, a 3.6 MTPA floating LNG development that will lift the country to the third-largest LNG producer in Africa when combined with Coral South (Key Developments).
  • Signed a power offtake agreement worth more than $1 billion with Commonwealth Fusion Systems for decarbonized power from a future 400 MW ARC fusion plant in Virginia, deepening Eni's strategic role in fusion energy (Key Developments).
  • Raised 2025 oil and gas production guidance to a range of 1.71 million to 1.72 million boe per day, implying approximately 1.8 million boe per day in the fourth quarter (Key Developments).
  • Reported higher hydrocarbon production in the third quarter of 2025 at 1.756 million boe per day, driven by increased liquids and modestly higher gas output compared with the prior-year period (Key Developments).
  • Continued shareholder returns via a buyback program, repurchasing 68.4 million shares, representing 2.25% of share capital, for €980 million under the 2025 authorization (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately $16.54 from $16.42, reflecting a modest uplift in long term expectations.
  • The discount rate has increased marginally to about 9.57% from 9.55%, indicating a slightly higher required return in the valuation model.
  • Revenue growth has risen significantly to roughly 1.13% from 0.96%, signaling stronger anticipated top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin has edged down slightly to about 5.93% from 5.95%, pointing to a minor compression in projected profitability.
  • The future P/E has increased modestly to around 11.8x from 11.7x, suggesting a small upward adjustment in the earnings multiple applied.

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Disclaimer

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