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Italian Banks Will Face Margin Erosion And Rising Costs

BMPS
BMPS
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 27 Nov 2024

Update shared on19 Sep 2025

Fair value Increased 3.77%
Previous
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
€9.28
18.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
19 Sep
€7.54
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1Y
50.8%
7D
-5.5%

The price target for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has been raised as a result of sharply improved revenue growth forecasts and a substantially lower future P/E, now reflecting an updated fair value of €9.28.


What's in the News


  • Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMDPF) is considering raising its $18B bid for Mediobanca (MDIBY) and may add a cash component to the offer (Bloomberg, Sep 1, 2025).
  • The bank's board has called a meeting to discuss the strategy for the revised bid (Bloomberg, Sep 1, 2025).
  • Approximately 13% of Mediobanca's shares have been tendered to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena by investors (Bloomberg, Aug 17, 2025).
  • The successful tendering of these shares marks a significant advance in Banca Monte's takeover attempt (Bloomberg, Aug 17, 2025).
  • Further developments regarding the potential bid increase and cash component are pending board decision (Bloomberg, Sep 1, 2025).

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from €8.94 to €9.28.
  • The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has significantly risen from 3.9% per annum to 15.1% per annum.
  • The Future P/E for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has significantly fallen from 10.42x to 8.07x.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.