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500400: Bhutan Hydro Expansion And Stable Margins Will Guide The Medium Term

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

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Analysts have maintained their price target on Tata Power at Rs 419, reflecting unchanged expectations for revenue growth, profitability, and future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Tata Power signed commercial agreements with Druk Green Power Corporation to develop the 1,125 MW Dorjilung hydropower project in Bhutan via an SPV, with DGPC holding 60% and Tata Power 40% equity (company announcement).
  • Dorjilung, a run of the river project with six 187.5 MW units and six hour pondage, will be Bhutan's second-largest hydropower plant and its largest PPP hydro venture. Under the agreement, 80% of power is planned to be supplied to India upon commissioning in September 2031 (company announcement).
  • Tata Power has committed equity investment of about INR 1,572 million in Dorjilung, part of a total project cost of INR 13,100 million, and the World Bank is supporting the project as a cross border clean-energy financing milestone (company announcement).
  • Once Dorjilung becomes operational, the SPV will be classified as an associate company, which is expected to strengthen Tata Power's presence in the Himalayan renewable corridor and significantly expand its renewable portfolio (company announcement).
  • Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited signed an MoU with Bank of Baroda to provide tailored solar project financing of up to 10 MW for MSME and C&I customers, including collateral free loans up to INR 10 million, interest rates starting at 7.75%, and tenures up to 120 months (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately ₹419 per share, indicating no reassessment of intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: Stable at about 12.76 percent, reflecting an unchanged risk and return framework in the valuation model.
  • Revenue Growth: Marginal downward adjustment, with the estimate remaining at around 7.30 percent, effectively indicating no material change in long term growth assumptions.
  • Net Profit Margin: Negligible reduction, with the forecast holding at about 7.69 percent, implying a virtually unchanged profitability outlook.
  • Future P/E: Slight downward tweak, with the assumption maintained at roughly 30.29x, signaling a steady medium term valuation multiple assumption.

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