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NATIONALUM: Record Output And Dividend Policy Will Support Balanced Returns Ahead

Analysts Raise National Aluminium Price Target as Dividend and Profit Projections Improve

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NATIONALUM
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 23 Feb 2025

Update shared on 09 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.58%
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Analysts have raised their price target on National Aluminium to ₹269.82 from ₹268.27, a modest upward revision reflecting slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, despite a marginally higher discount rate and essentially unchanged future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Company reports record alumina hydrate production of 1,153,000 MT and aluminium cast metal output of 234,148 MT for the first half of FY 2025-26, marking its highest ever operational performance (company announcement of operating results)
  • Board meeting scheduled for November 07, 2025 to review unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025, and to consider an interim dividend for FY 2025-26 (board meeting notice)
  • Board meeting held on September 25, 2025, indicating ongoing board level review of strategy and performance (board meeting notice)
  • Shareholders approve a final dividend of INR 2.50 per equity share, equivalent to 50 percent of the face value of INR 5, for FY 2024-25 at the AGM on September 26, 2025 (dividend increase announcement)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly from ₹268.27 to ₹269.82 per share, implying a modestly higher intrinsic value.
  • The discount rate has increased marginally from 14.40 percent to 14.57 percent, reflecting a slightly higher required return or risk assessment.
  • The revenue growth assumption has been raised from 0.92 percent to about 1.09 percent, indicating stronger expectations for top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin has improved slightly from 26.10 percent to about 26.34 percent, suggesting a small upgrade to long term profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E multiple has edged down marginally from 15.22x to about 15.17x, implying a slightly more conservative valuation multiple on future earnings.

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