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500188: Rising Output Guidance Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Downside Risk

500188: Production Expansions And Sustainability Investments Will Shape Outlook

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500188
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 07 Nov 2024

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.76%
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Analysts have marginally raised their fair value estimate for Hindustan Zinc from ₹489.46 to ₹498.07 per share, reflecting slightly higher assumed revenue growth, profit margins and future earnings multiples, even after incorporating a modest uptick in the discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Board meeting scheduled for October 17, 2025 to review unaudited consolidated and standalone financial results for Q2 and H1 FY 2025, along with other matters (company filing)
  • Production results for Q2 FY 2026 show marginally higher mined metal at 258,000 MT versus 256,000 MT a year earlier, but lower total refined metal at 246,000 MT versus 262,000 MT and reduced silver output at 144 MT versus 184 MT (company announcement)
  • For the first half of FY 2026, mined metal production rose slightly to 523,000 MT versus 519,000 MT, while total refined metal declined to 496,000 MT from 524,000 MT and silver output fell to 293 MT from 350 MT (company announcement)
  • Revised FY 2026 guidance sets mined metal production at 1,125 (±10) kt, refined metal at 1,075 (±10) kt and saleable silver at 680 (±10) MT. This signals management expectations of higher volumes ahead (company guidance)
  • Special or extraordinary shareholders meeting to be held via postal ballot in India on December 20, 2025, to seek investor approvals on yet to be specified resolutions (company notice)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate per Share has risen slightly from ₹489.46 to ₹498.07, implying a modest upward revision in intrinsic value.
  • The Discount Rate has increased marginally from 14.67% to 14.75%, reflecting a slightly higher required return or risk premium.
  • The Revenue Growth Assumption has edged up from 9.67% to 9.84%, indicating a small improvement in expected top line expansion.
  • The Net Profit Margin has risen slightly from 32.90% to 33.22%, suggesting a modestly more optimistic view on profitability.
  • The Future P/E Multiple has increased fractionally from 21.65x to 21.77x, pointing to a marginally higher valuation multiple on future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.