Update shared on 19 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 11%Analysts have raised their price target on Bharat Petroleum from ₹258 to ₹287, citing expectations of slightly higher future profitability, a richer valuation multiple, and a lower perceived risk profile despite more subdued long term revenue growth assumptions.
What's in the News
- BPCL signed three landmark MoUs with Oil India, Numaligarh Refinery and FACT at the 28th Energy Technology Meet 2025 in Hyderabad, strengthening its integrated growth strategy in refining, petrochemicals, green energy and logistics infrastructure (Key Developments).
- Under a non binding MoU, BPCL and Oil India will explore collaboration on BPCL's upcoming Greenfield Refinery and Petrochemical Complex near Ramayapatnam Port in Andhra Pradesh, including a potential minority equity stake by Oil India (Key Developments).
- The proposed Ramayapatnam complex will have a 9 to 12 MMTPA refining capacity and a 1.5 MMTPA ethylene cracker unit, with about INR 1 lakh crore investment, targeting commercial operations by FY2030 and high petrochemical intensity (Key Developments).
- BPCL, Oil India and Numaligarh Refinery signed a tripartite MoU to explore a cross country petroleum product pipeline from Siliguri to Mughalsarai via Muzaffarpur and depot infrastructure augmentation to support NRL's capacity expansion from 3 MMTPA to 9 MMTPA (Key Developments).
- BPCL's board will meet on October 31, 2025 to approve unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025 and to consider an interim dividend for FY 2025 26 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has risen moderately from ₹258 to approximately ₹287 per share, reflecting a higher intrinsic value assessment.
- The Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 13.8 percent to 12.8 percent, indicating a lower perceived risk profile for future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth Assumptions have turned more negative, moving from roughly minus 0.9 percent to about minus 7.2 percent, implying a materially weaker long term topline outlook.
- The Net Profit Margin Forecast has improved modestly from around 2.9 percent to about 3.4 percent, suggesting expectations of better profitability despite softer revenue growth.
- The Future P/E Multiple has increased gradually from about 13.2x to roughly 14.8x, indicating a richer valuation being assigned to the company’s earnings.
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