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500109: Revenue Outlook And Margin Reset Will Shape Fair Future Prospects

Rising Indian Energy Demand Will Fuel Refining And Petrochemicals

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500109
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 05 Jul 2025
2 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Update shared on 24 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 4.61%
Next
07 Jun
₹163.60
AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
₹215.00
23.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
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1Y
12.1%
7D
6.0%

Analysts have raised their price target on Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals from ₹152 to ₹159, citing expectations of faster revenue growth, a lower discount rate, and a higher future earnings multiple, despite more conservative profit margin assumptions.

What's in the News

  • Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals reported throughput of 4.43 MMT for the second quarter ended September 30, 2025, reflecting combined crude and other inputs processed during the period (company announcement).
  • Throughput for the first half of the financial year also stood at 4.43 MMT, indicating that the bulk of processing volumes were recorded in the second quarter (company announcement).
  • The board has scheduled a meeting on October 15, 2025 to consider and approve standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025 (board meeting notice).

Valuation Changes

  • Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen moderately from ₹152 to ₹159, reflecting a higher assessed fair value for the stock.
  • Discount Rate has fallen meaningfully from 14.18 percent to 12.76 percent, implying a lower perceived risk or cost of capital in the valuation model.
  • Revenue Growth expectations have increased significantly from 1.48 percent to 2.85 percent, indicating a stronger projected top line trajectory.
  • Net Profit Margin assumptions have been cut sharply from 7.14 percent to 2.50 percent, incorporating more conservative profitability expectations.
  • Future P/E has expanded substantially from 6.02x to 16.80x, signaling a higher valuation multiple being applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

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