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RVNL: Order Wins And Higher Discount Rate Will Shape Measured Outlook

Urbanization And Green Mandates Will Power Global Rail Transformation

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RVNL
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 17 Jun 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 1.76%
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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-26.3%
7D
1.7%

Narrative Update on Rail Vikas Nigam

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Rail Vikas Nigam slightly, from ₹340 to about ₹334, as they incorporate a higher discount rate, despite modestly stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Received a letter of acceptance from East Coast Railway to supply, install, test and commission an IP based video surveillance system for its rolling stock, with a project cost of about INR 964 million excluding GST, to be completed within 180 days (company filing).
  • Maintained revenue guidance for FY 2025 at around INR 210,000 million to INR 220,000 million, indicating confidence in the current order book and execution pipeline (company guidance).
  • Won an order from South Central Railway for design, supply, erection, testing and commissioning to upgrade the OHE system from 1X25kV to 2X25kV in the Ramgundam, Kazipet section of Secunderabad Division, in the normal course of business (company announcement).
  • Scheduled a board meeting on November 11, 2025 to consider and approve unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025, and to appoint an internal auditor up to March 31, 2026 (board notice).

Valuation Changes

  • Consensus Analyst Price Target: trimmed slightly from ₹340 to ₹334, reflecting a modest reduction in fair value.
  • Discount Rate: increased meaningfully from 15.09 percent to 16.33 percent, raising the hurdle rate applied in the valuation model.
  • Revenue Growth: revised up marginally from 10.74 percent to 11.20 percent, indicating slightly stronger top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: nudged higher from 5.43 percent to 5.45 percent, implying a minor improvement in profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E: edged up from 73.14x to 73.66x, suggesting a slightly higher valuation multiple for forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

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