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293: Shareholder Payout Plans Will Likely Mask Limited Long Term Upside

Intensive Flight Expansion Will Lower Yields Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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293
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 06 Apr 2025

Update shared on 04 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.39%
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1Y
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9.7%

Analysts have raised their price target on Cathay Pacific Airways by approximately HK$0.15, reflecting slightly stronger assumptions for long term revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Cathay Pacific has scheduled a board meeting for March 11, 2026, to announce annual results for the year ending December 31, 2025, signaling upcoming clarity on full year performance (company event filing).
  • The same March 11, 2026, board meeting will consider the payment of a second interim dividend in lieu of a final dividend for 2025, highlighting the board's focus on shareholder returns (company event filing).
  • On November 7, 2025, the board announced it will consider launching a share repurchase program, potentially providing additional support for the share price and capital return to investors (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from HK$10.79 to HK$10.94, reflecting a modest uplift in the intrinsic value assessment.
  • The Discount Rate has edged up marginally from 10.03% to 10.05%, indicating a slightly higher required return applied to future cash flows.
  • The Revenue Growth Assumption has increased slightly from 4.45% to 4.47%, suggesting a modestly more optimistic outlook on top line expansion.
  • The Net Profit Margin has improved fractionally from 8.29% to 8.30%, signaling a small upgrade to long term profitability expectations.
  • The Future P/E Multiple has risen slightly from 8.98x to 9.09x, implying a modestly higher valuation being placed on future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.