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1519: Share Repurchase Program Will Likely Fail To Offset Overvaluation Risk

Rising Protectionism And Escalating Costs Will Challenge Global Logistics

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1519
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 07 Sep 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 14%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
72.7%
7D
3.5%

Analysts have raised their price target for J&T Global Express from approximately $7.38 to $8.39 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a still attractive, though slightly higher, discount rate despite a modestly lower projected future P&E multiple.

What's in the News

  • Reported third quarter 2025 operating results with total parcel volume of about 7.68 billion, up 23.1% year on year, driven by double-digit growth across all major markets, especially Southeast Asia and New Markets (Key Developments).
  • Achieved average daily parcel volume of 83.4 million in the third quarter of 2025, underscoring continued scale gains in the company’s global logistics network (Key Developments).
  • Commenced a share repurchase program on September 17, 2025, authorized to buy back up to 890,555,186 shares, or 9.92% of issued share capital, with the aim of enhancing net asset value and earnings per share (Key Developments).
  • Buyback authority, approved at the June 18, 2025 AGM, will remain in effect until the next AGM or until varied or revoked by shareholders, and repurchases will be funded from legally available resources under Cayman Islands law (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Raised from HK$7.38 to HK$8.39 per share. This represents a moderate upward revision in the company’s intrinsic valuation.
  • Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 7.73% to 8.17%. This reflects a modestly higher required return while still supporting an attractive valuation.
  • Revenue Growth: Upgraded from 13.65% to 15.05%. This indicates slightly stronger expectations for top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin: Improved from 4.30% to 4.94%. This signals a modestly better outlook for profitability.
  • Future P/E: Reduced from 14.63x to 13.88x. This implies a slightly lower assumed earnings multiple in the updated valuation framework.

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