Update shared on 10 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.98%Analysts have lowered their price target for Xiaomi from $45 to $43, citing ongoing weakness in the global cellphone market even as the company continues to gain market share.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight Xiaomi's continued ability to gain market share, even as the global cellphone market faces challenges.
- Xiaomi's valuation remains attractive to some, based on resilient execution and product innovation driving customer growth.
- Analysts see potential upside if Xiaomi can capitalize on market shifts and outperform competitors during an industry downturn.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts cite persistent weakness and uncertainty in the global cellphone market, which could limit near-term revenue growth.
- There are concerns that margin pressures may increase as Xiaomi competes aggressively for share in a slow-growth environment.
- Slower consumer demand in key international markets may weigh on the company's financial results, prompting a lower price target.
What's in the News
- Xiaomi has launched a customizable service for its high-end SU7 Ultra electric sedan in China. The service targets affluent buyers seeking personalization options traditionally associated with European brands like Porsche (Bloomberg).
- BASF Coatings and Xiaomi are expanding their collaboration to co-develop 100 new car paint colors over the next three years. Their goal is to drive innovation and personalization in automotive color design.
- Xiaomi's board will meet on November 18, 2025, to review the company's unaudited consolidated third quarterly results and discuss performance for the first nine months of the year.
- The company began a new share repurchase program on September 29, 2025. The program is authorized to buy back up to 10% of its issued share capital.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased modestly from HK$64.87 to HK$62.94.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.36% to 8.54%.
- Revenue Growth projection has edged down, now at 20.49%, compared to 20.90% previously.
- Net Profit Margin outlook has improved marginally, increasing to 9.34% from 9.29%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings Ratio forecast has declined to 30.75x, down from a previous estimate of 31.40x.
Disclaimer
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