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2628: Future Profits And Dividend Policy Will Support Balanced Shareholder Returns

2628: Fair Value Will Remain Steady As Profitability Outlook Is Tempered

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2628
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 07 Nov 2024

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.052%
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1Y
95.7%
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6.1%

Analysts have nudged their price target on China Life Insurance slightly lower to approximately $28.57 from about $28.58. This reflects marginally more conservative assumptions on future valuation multiples, while growth and profitability expectations remain essentially unchanged.

What's in the News

  • Issued guidance for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting net profit attributable to equity holders to rise about 50% to 70% year on year to roughly RMB 156.8 billion to RMB 177.7 billion under China Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises (Key Developments)
  • Forecasts similar 50% to 70% year on year growth in net profit after deducting non recurring items for the same period, highlighting stronger underlying profitability supported by higher investment returns (Key Developments)
  • Board meeting scheduled for October 30, 2025 to review and approve unaudited results for the first three quarters of 2025 (Key Developments)
  • Approved an interim dividend of RMB 0.238 per share for the first half of 2025, payable in Hong Kong dollars to H share investors via the Hong Kong Stock Connect Program on November 21, 2025 (Key Developments)
  • Shareholders approved amendments to the Articles of Association at the September 25, 2025 annual general meeting, indicating ongoing adjustments to corporate governance and internal rules (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has edged down slightly from HK$28.58 to around HK$28.57, reflecting a marginally lower target price.
  • The discount rate remains unchanged at 7.02 percent, indicating no adjustment to the assumed cost of equity.
  • The revenue growth assumption is essentially flat, easing only fractionally from about 28.00 percent to 28.00 percent.
  • The net profit margin forecast is stable, with only a negligible technical adjustment from approximately 7.58 percent to 7.58 percent.
  • The future P/E multiple has fallen slightly from about 15.21x to roughly 15.16x, implying a modestly more conservative valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.