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883: Future Offshore Output Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Optimism

Global Decarbonization And ESG Pressures Will Cripple Hydrocarbon Value

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883
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 03 Jun 2025

Update shared on 16 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 2.08%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
12.4%
7D
-2.6%

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on CNOOC from approximately $15.15 to $15.46, reflecting slightly lower perceived risk and a marginally improved long term revenue outlook despite largely unchanged profitability assumptions.

What's in the News

  • The Weizhou 11-4 Oilfield Adjustment and Satellite Fields Development Project in the Beibu Gulf Basin has commenced production, with 35 planned wells and targeted plateau output of about 16,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, supporting regional energy supply security (Key Developments).
  • CNOOC is implementing a coordinated development plan of three offshore processing centers plus one onshore terminal, using new unmanned and central processing platforms tied into existing infrastructure to optimize gathering, transportation, and resource utilization (Key Developments).
  • A Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting is scheduled for December 16, 2025 in Hong Kong to consider Non exempt Continuing Connected Transactions and their proposed caps (Key Developments).
  • Chief Executive Officer Zhou Xinhuai has resigned from his position effective October 20, 2025, marking a leadership transition at the company (Key Developments).
  • A Board Meeting on October 30, 2025 will review the results of CNOOC and its subsidiaries for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, which may provide updated operational and financial performance information (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly from HK$15.15 to approximately HK$15.46 per share, indicating a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
  • The discount rate has edged down marginally from 6.92 percent to 6.90 percent, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
  • The revenue growth assumption has improved slightly, with the long-term decline rate easing from about minus 2.22 percent to around minus 2.07 percent per year.
  • The net profit margin forecast has been trimmed marginally from 26.29 percent to about 26.25 percent, indicating essentially unchanged long-term profitability expectations.
  • The future P/E multiple has increased slightly from 8.06x to about 8.10x, suggesting a modestly higher valuation multiple on expected earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.