Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 6.32%Analysts have raised their price target for China Coal Energy by approximately $0.85 per share, reflecting higher projected revenue growth and a lower discount rate that more than offset minor adjustments to long term profit margin and valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Reported October 2025 operating results showing slightly higher monthly commercial coal output year on year, alongside mixed trends in chemicals, with methanol volumes down but urea and ammonium nitrate up or stable (company announcement of operating results).
- Year to date through October 2025, commercial coal production slipped marginally versus the prior year, while chemical product mix shifted, with lower polyethylene and polypropylene volumes but higher urea and methanol output (company announcement of operating results).
- September 2025 production update highlighted modest softness in monthly coal volumes compared with a year earlier, but stronger urea and methanol output, underscoring ongoing diversification beyond core coal operations (company announcement of operating results).
- The board received the retirement-based resignation of president Zhao Rongzhe in November 2025, with no reported disagreements or issues requiring shareholder attention, creating an opportunity for leadership transition at the top executive level (executive changes filing).
- The board convened on October 27, 2025 to review and consider the Group's quarterly results for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, indicating forthcoming disclosure on year to date financial performance (board meeting notice).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen moderately from HK$13.43 to around HK$14.28 per share, reflecting higher expected earnings and cash flows.
- Discount Rate has fallen meaningfully from about 7.79 percent to roughly 7.05 percent, indicating a lower perceived risk profile or funding cost.
- Revenue Growth Assumption has increased significantly from approximately 2.19 percent to about 5.00 percent, implying a stronger outlook for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin has edged down slightly from around 10.16 percent to about 10.10 percent, suggesting a marginally more conservative view on profitability.
- Future P/E Multiple has risen slightly from roughly 11.01x to about 11.29x, signaling a modestly higher valuation placed on forward earnings.
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