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1288: Dividend And Bond Plans Will Likely Leave Shares Looking Vulnerable

China's Rural Decline And Fintech Disruption Will Erode Demand

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1288
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 02 Jun 2025

Update shared on 16 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.27%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
31.3%
7D
-3.8%

Agricultural Bank of China’s consensus analyst price target has edged higher by approximately $0.01, as analysts incorporate slightly faster expected revenue growth and a lower discount rate that more than offset marginally softer profit margin and valuation assumptions.

What's in the News

  • The board approved an interim cash dividend for 2025 of RMB 1.195 per ten ordinary shares, to be paid in RMB or HKD equivalent, with H share payments expected on 26 January 2026 and A share payments on 15 December 2025 (company disclosure).
  • A special shareholders meeting is scheduled for 28 November 2025 in Beijing to vote on director elections, interim profit distribution for 2025, a financial bond issuance plan, and quotas for capital instruments and TLAC non capital bonds (company disclosure).
  • A board meeting is set for 30 October 2025 to review and approve third quarter 2025 financial results (company disclosure).
  • A board meeting was held on 22 September 2025, indicating ongoing governance activity around capital planning and performance oversight (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value has risen slightly, increasing from HK$4.02 to approximately HK$4.03 per share.
  • The discount rate has fallen modestly, moving from about 8.57 percent to around 8.43 percent, supporting a marginally higher valuation.
  • Revenue growth has been revised up moderately, from roughly 10.91 percent to about 11.34 percent, reflecting slightly stronger top-line expectations.
  • Net profit margin has edged down marginally, from about 36.49 percent to around 36.39 percent, indicating slightly softer profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E has decreased slightly, from around 5.64x to roughly 5.45x, implying a somewhat lower multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.