ICG: Rising Price Outlook Will Support Long-Term Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their price target on ICG from £26.12 to £26.28. This reflects slightly higher profit margin expectations and a modestly richer future valuation multiple that more than offset a small increase in the discount rate and marginally lower revenue growth assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates underscore a constructive view on ICG, with bullish analysts citing improving fundamentals that justify a higher valuation, even as they acknowledge lingering execution and macro risks.

Bullish Takeaways

• The higher price target to 2,800 GBp signals increased confidence that ICG can sustain stronger profitability, supporting a premium valuation versus prior assumptions.
• Bullish analysts point to resilient fee income and stable fundraising trends as evidence that ICG can continue to grow assets under management, underpinning medium term earnings growth.
• Improved visibility on deployment and realizations is seen as reducing near term execution risk, allowing investors to place a higher multiple on forward cash flows.
• The decision to maintain a positive rating alongside the target increase suggests analysts believe the risk reward remains attractive despite the recent share price strength.

Bearish Takeaways

• Even with the target increase, some cautious analysts highlight that the implied upside is more modest than before, reflecting a slightly higher cost of capital and less room for multiple expansion.
• There are concerns that a slower macro environment could temper deal activity and realizations, potentially delaying the realization of the upgraded earnings trajectory.
• Competitive pressure in private markets is flagged as a risk to sustaining current fee rates and margins, which could cap further upside to valuation.
• Cautious analysts also note that execution missteps around capital deployment or portfolio exits could quickly erode confidence in the raised target, making delivery against guidance critical.

What's in the News

• Amundi S.A. agreed to acquire a 9.9% stake in ICG plc, becoming a strategic shareholder and gaining the right to nominate a non executive director to ICG’s Board. This reinforces long term alignment on strategy (Key Developments)
• ICG’s Board declared an increased interim dividend of 27.7 pence per share for the six months ended 30 September 2025, up from 26.3 pence per share in H1 FY25, with payment scheduled for 9 January 2026 (Key Developments)
• Amundi and ICG announced a 10 year strategic partnership that makes Amundi the exclusive global distributor in the wealth channel for ICG’s evergreen and certain other products, while ICG becomes Amundi’s exclusive provider of those strategies (Key Developments)
• The Amundi ICG partnership includes joint development of new private markets products tailored for wealth investors, expanding access to ICG’s strategies for over 200 million individual investors through Amundi’s global network (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has risen slightly from £26.12 to £26.28 per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation for ICG.
• Discount Rate has increased marginally from 8.92% to 8.97%, implying a slightly higher required return from investors.
• Revenue Growth assumptions have edged down slightly from 5.78% to 5.75% per year, indicating a modestly more cautious top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin expectations have risen slightly from 48.37% to 48.57%, pointing to a small improvement in anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E multiple has increased marginally from 15.46x to 15.53x, suggesting a slightly richer valuation being applied to forward earnings.