Update shared on 02 Feb 2026
Fair value Decreased 9.01%TibiT has decreased future PE multiple from 15.0x to 11.1x.
I've considered to sell and rotate to different stocks.
That's mainly due to the following risks:
The "Squeeze" from Integrated Players (Jet2 & easyJet): This is the single biggest threat.
- Jet2 and easyJet Holidays have become incredibly aggressive. Because they own the seats (planes), they can price packages aggressively to fill those seats. OTB has to buy those seats at market rates. If easyJet wants to kill OTB's margin on a route to Majorca, they can simply lower their package price below the cost of the flight + hotel components OTB can assemble.
- Airline Supply & Hostility: Despite the Ryanair deal, OTB is dependent on low-cost carriers (LCCs) for inventory. If airlines decide to "turn off the tap" or technically block scrapers/API access again, OTB's product shelf empties overnight.
- Macro-Economic Sensitivity: Holidays are a discretionary big-ticket item. In a UK recession or cost-of-living crisis, the "mass market" consumer (OTB's core demographic) cuts travel spend faster than the luxury demographic.
- Google's encroachment: Google Flights and Hotel Search are the ultimate top-of-funnel competitors. If Google prioritizes its own travel widgets over organic search results (SEO), OTB's customer acquisition costs (CAC) will skyrocket.
Have other thoughts on On the Beach Group?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeDisclaimer
The user TibiT holds no position in LSE:OTB. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.