Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 21%Analysts have moderately reduced their price target on Transgene, cutting fair value by about 20 percent to approximately 1.10 euros. They have incorporated slower expected revenue growth, a higher discount rate, and a more balanced, though significantly improved, long term profit margin outlook into their models.
What's in the News
- Completed a €105 million follow-on equity offering of 102,941,177 new ordinary shares at €1.02 per share, strengthening the balance sheet and funding pipeline programs (company filing).
- Certain ordinary shares are subject to a new lock-up agreement running from November 26, 2025, to March 2, 2026, limiting near-term insider selling following the fundraising (company announcement).
- Presented additional immunological data for individualized neoantigen vaccine TG4050 at the 2025 SITC Annual Meeting, showing durable CD8+ T cell responses consistent with long-term anti-tumor immunity (SITC 2025 poster).
- Reported updated Phase I results for oncolytic virus BT-001 at the 2025 ESMO Annual Meeting, indicating good tolerability and sustained antitumor activity in combination with pembrolizumab in advanced solid tumors (ESMO 2025 poster).
- Reported that all patients treated with TG4050 in the randomized Phase I part of an HNSCC trial remained disease-free for at least two years, supporting further development and regulatory pathway discussions (ASCO 2025 presentation).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: reduced significantly from approximately €1.40 to €1.10 per share, reflecting a lower expected equity valuation.
- Discount Rate: increased modestly from about 5.98 percent to 6.49 percent, which implies a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: lowered markedly from around 8.13 percent to 3.09 percent, which indicates more conservative assumptions for long term top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: raised substantially from roughly 7.88 percent to 41.15 percent, incorporating expectations of a materially more profitable mature business.
- Future P/E: compressed sharply from about 347.8x to 52.1x, which suggests a less aggressive multiple on projected earnings.
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