Update shared on03 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.30%Analysts have lowered their price targets for Pernod Ricard by approximately EUR 2.50, citing broader concerns over valuation and potential downside risks to earnings estimates.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research has highlighted a range of perspectives regarding Pernod Ricard's outlook, with both bullish and bearish analysts weighing in on valuation, earnings risk, and growth potential.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to emphasize Pernod Ricard's solid global brand portfolio, which may offer resilience despite near-term concerns.
- Some see long-term structural growth potential in select markets, supporting the company's prospects for revenue recovery and expansion.
- Efforts to optimize operational efficiency and drive premiumization are viewed positively by those with a constructive view on the stock.
- Bearish analysts remain concerned that Pernod Ricard's current valuation leaves little room for earnings disappointment.
- There is a consensus that shares appear expensive, with increasing downside risks to consensus profit estimates due to macroeconomic headwinds.
- Lowered price targets reflect caution about the pace of margin improvement and revenue growth in a competitive spirits market.
- Ongoing uncertainty around consumer demand trends is viewed as a key risk to execution and near-term financial performance.
What's in the News
- Pernod Ricard is among several major alcohol companies exploring entry into the cannabis beverage market by leveraging hemp-derived THC as regulatory dynamics evolve in the United States (Reuters).
- The company has scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for October 27, 2025 in Paris, signaling important upcoming corporate governance events.
- Pernod Ricard issued sales guidance for fiscal year 2026, citing expectations of a transition year with organic net sales improvement weighted toward the second half of the year.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Fair Value has decreased from €108.84 to €106.33. This reflects a modest reduction in perceived intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate remains essentially unchanged at 5.98 percent, indicating similar assumptions around risk and return expectations.
- Revenue Growth projections have declined further, from -0.27 percent to -0.80 percent. This points to a more cautious outlook for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimates have edged down from 17.15 percent to 17.02 percent, signaling slightly lower anticipated profitability.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio forecasts are virtually flat, moving from 17.45x to 17.45x, suggesting stable valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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