Update shared on10 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 1.45%TotalEnergies’ analyst price target saw a modest increase, moving from $65 to $67. Analysts broadly adjusted their estimates upward, although they noted that current forecasts remain cautious given recent market and margin trends.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst opinions on TotalEnergies reflect a mixed outlook, as recent adjustments to price targets indicate both optimism about the company’s execution and caution around broader industry challenges. Several research notes following TotalEnergies’ latest updates highlighted key themes in their assessments of valuation and strategic progress.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts raised price targets modestly. This reflects confidence in TotalEnergies’ ability to deliver sustainable shareholder returns and demonstrate resource depth.
- Recent results showcased relative strength within the energy sector, benefiting from a combination of growth initiatives and favorable medium-term trends in refining margins.
- Some forecasts have been set above consensus, signaling positive expectations for capital allocation and underlying business performance.
- Improvements in key indicators, particularly in marketing and refining, support the outlook for continued sequential progress.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts retained cautious price targets or issued downgrades, driven by concerns about a weaker macro environment and the company’s efforts to align spending with more modest growth assumptions.
- Recent capital expenditure cuts in the power segment suggest management is preparing for lower growth, and consensus estimates may not fully account for revised targets.
- Updates to operating assumptions indicated that, despite some sequential improvement, anticipated upside is less substantial than previously forecasted, particularly in refining margins.
- A downgrade to a neutral stance and price target reductions reflect ongoing uncertainty around market volatility and margin trends impacting TotalEnergies’ near-term valuation.
What's in the News
- OPEC+ has agreed to increase crude oil output by 137,000 barrels per day in both October and November, partially reversing previous production cuts (The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times).
- TotalEnergies and Veolia have signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on energy transition and circular economy projects. The agreement aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, lower water usage, and deploy innovative technologies in waste management.
- TotalEnergies, together with partners QatarEnergy and SNPC, has been awarded the Nzombo exploration permit offshore Republic of the Congo. Plans include drilling an exploration well before the end of 2025.
- TotalEnergies has announced the start of construction for key projects in Iraq, including the Common Seawater Supply Project and Ratawi oil field development. These efforts support the country's energy independence and aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Valuation Changes
- The fair value estimate has risen slightly from €62.66 to €63.57, reflecting modest positive adjustments.
- The discount rate has decreased marginally from 6.83% to 6.66%, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
- The revenue growth forecast has been revised downward from 2.20% to 2.11%, suggesting a more cautious outlook on sales increases.
- The net profit margin estimate has declined from 8.00% to 7.76%, pointing to expectations of lower profitability.
- The future P/E ratio has increased from 9.49x to 11.45x, implying a higher valuation relative to expected earnings.
Disclaimer
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