Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for TotalEnergies to €63.33, citing a mix of strong Q2 results and supportive refining margins offset by tempered refining upside and sector-wide reassessment, resulting in a slight downward revision to fair value.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite TotalEnergies' strong second quarter IOC results, highlighting its growth potential, resource depth, and sustained shareholder returns as drivers for upward price target revisions.
- The company’s distinctive business mix and an increasingly favorable medium-term refining margin outlook are seen as key strengths supporting higher valuations.
- Some bearish analysts have lowered targets after updating forecasts based on company guidance and modest changes to operating assumptions, with market volatility weighing on sequential trading contributions.
- Lower upside in refining segment performance relative to prior expectations and industry trends has prompted select downward target revisions despite strong marketing results.
- Sector-wide price target updates among large integrated oil and refining peers reflect a reassessment of operating environments and outlooks, influencing analysts’ views on TotalEnergies.
What's in the News
- TotalEnergies is in advanced talks to sell its shale oil assets in Argentina, with bids from multiple suitors including YPF; the sale could be valued at $400–$500 million as TotalEnergies and other internationals rebalance portfolios amid favorable reforms in Argentina (Bloomberg, Key Developments).
- The company significantly expanded its low-carbon and renewables portfolio, including acquiring a 50% stake in AES Dominicana Renewables’ 1.5 GW Caribbean portfolio, winning a 1 GW North Sea offshore wind concession, and advancing exploration with new interests in Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Key Developments).
- TotalEnergies and partners successfully launched the world’s first merchant CO2 transportation and storage project Northern Lights in Norway, with Phase 1 fully booked and Phase 2 set to triple capacity by 2028; further partnerships are driving energy transition goals, such as strategic drone inspections for environmental monitoring and large-scale used cooking oil-to-biofuel initiatives (Key Developments).
- The company has completed substantial share buybacks, repurchasing 23.2 million shares between April and June 2025 and completing 5.27% of its shares outstanding since May 2024, signaling strong capital returns to shareholders (Key Developments).
- Collaborations on artificial intelligence and digitalization—in partnership with Aspen Technology, Emerson, and Mistral AI—are underway to enhance industrial efficiency, reduce emissions, and accelerate integration of advanced digital solutions across global operations (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for TotalEnergies
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from €64.03 to €63.33.
- The Future P/E for TotalEnergies has significantly fallen from 11.27x to 9.70x.
- The Discount Rate for TotalEnergies remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 6.72% to 6.71%.
Disclaimer
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